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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (21065)	8/11/2007 9:43:06 AM
From: Slagle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218072

Carranza, Not to pick a fuss with TJ, but here is an another problem with his "China First" thesis: TJ has repeatedly made reference to "socks", meaning the hosiery that a person wears on his feet, and I guess the bulk of them for sale in the US are now made in China. I have some "hands on" experience with "socks" having years ago worked on new designs for knitting machines (not for hosiery but for tubing, but working the same way except for starting and closure). Not long ago the US made most of their own socks, but the industry is mostly gone now, a result of environmental, consumer and workplace safety laws more than anything else, including cheaper wages overseas. I know for a fact that vast numbers of these US sock knitting machines were shipped to China and are doubtlessly still there and still making socks, as a knitter can last for ever if maintained. And no doubt the Chinese are now making their own knitters, in fact I saw images of some online somewhere and some more in a Taiwan trade magazine. BUT, it is quite possible to make a VAST generational leap in the manufacture of socks and it is quite possible to create a completely automated process where there is essentially NO human labor required at all, other than a few tech and management people. I'm thinking that there are many things like socks. If China forces others, maybe here in the US to make our own socks and other items, then we will, but we will do it in a much improved and enhanced manner than is now being done in China, and also to be done in a way that China will loose whatever advantage abundant and low cost labor provides them. Slagle

To: carranza2 who wrote (21065)	8/11/2007 11:55:15 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218072

Although I agree with you that China's "nuclear" option may turn out to be a net positive for America, if exercised, I strongly disagree that America will have a monopoly on future innovation. Not all Chinese youths are bone tired factory workers. There is a substantial, rapidly growing, Chinese middle and upper class whose numbers rival, if not surpass, the American middle class. Check out Coconut.

To: carranza2 who wrote (21065)	8/11/2007 5:56:25 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218072

>Ideas are way more profitable, at the end of the day. But that is another discussion.> China is setting on such large savings. They can easily do the following: 1. Hire smart kids from US schools 2. License their inventions at 2 percent royalty. 3. Buy their struggling startups. 3. Grow a small group of independent thinkers and tinkerers in China. -Arun

To: carranza2 who wrote (21065)	8/12/2007 4:18:49 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218072

<<The Chinese would thus lose US markets and at the same time give a nice boost to American exports to the rest of the world>> China ex-factory price is 1.00, USA retail price is 5.00, and so (i) adding 27.5% duty to the 1.00 will do nothing to decrease China export, (ii) dropping USD to RMB by 100% will do nothing to decrease China export. Importer margin are being hurt by the current round of devaluation, not the originating factories, for the most part. Whether dropping USD against RMB will increase USA export or not is less important, because USA cannot boost its economy by export - mathematically very difficult. As to brands, they are increasingly for sale, just ask Ford. The nuclear option is just code words for the empire wishing to commit hari kari, sooner, by asking to make all items more expensive for its effectively insolvent consumers.

To: carranza2 who wrote (21065)	8/12/2007 1:18:46 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218072

System perturbations must be widening, China trying to put the genie back into the bottle: >>China Seeks to Dampen US Dollar Rumors Sunday August 12, 3:10 am ET China's Central Bank Says US Dollars Are Important Part of Reserves, State Media Reports BEIJING (AP) -- China sought Sunday to dampen speculation it will conduct a massive sell-off of U.S. dollar holdings, with a central bank official saying the dollar remains a mainstay of its foreign exchange reserves. In an interview carried by the government's Xinhua News Agency, an unnamed official with the People's Bank of China said U.S. dollars and government bonds are "an important part of China's foreign reserve investments." China's $1.3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves are the largest in the world and are believed to be comprised largely of dollar assets, potentially giving Beijing enormous sway over the dollar's value and currency markets worldwide. A report in the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph this past week that quoted Chinese government economists as saying China would dump its dollar holdings in the event of a trade war with Washington added to jitters in stock markets already unnerved by volatility in U.S. share markets. Xinhua said the central banker's remarks were intended to counter unspecified reports in Western media that China "is threatening to carry out a sell-off of U.S. dollars." The Xinhua report was prominently posted on the central government's main Web site, in a further sign Beijing hoped the statement would underscore its commitment to hold U.S. dollar assets and calm investors. "China is a responsible investor in international financial markets, and our country's foreign exchange reserves are managed with the operational goals of safety, liquidity and profit," Xinhua quoted the central bank official as saying. The People's Bank does not disclose the composition of the foreign exchange reserves, which have swelled in recent years as China's exports surged and investors poured money into the country to profit from an economy now in its fourth straight year of double-digit growth. But the reserves have become a political issue both within China and between Beijing and Washington. As the dollar has fallen in value, the People's Bank has come under pressure to diversify its holdings to maintain the value of the reserves and improve returns. Washington has pointed to China's growing reserves as proof that the Chinese currency is undervalued, making Chinese exports cheap, putting American manufacturers at a disadvantage and compounding a hefty U.S. trade deficit. Several U.S. senators have renewed calls in recent weeks to punish Beijing if it does not let the currency, the yuan, rise in value. biz.yahoo.com