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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (67482)	8/12/2007 3:01:06 AM
From: westpacific	Respond to of 116555

Oil, Coal, NG - we did not have the same global bubble back then in the BRIC, Brazil, Russia, India and China stock markets are all still trading all time high. Until we see the BRIC markets roll over demand should stay high. Watch all four of these indexes, I track them daily on a techncial perspective. Natural Gas fell 18% on average in the 2001 to 2002 period due to overall decline in consumption. Coal - this is the energy of choice in China, YZC what a story, the main coal player in China. Near $1 in 1998 to $80 today. When I look at individual energy stocks many rallied in the 2000 to 2001 period then had big corrections with the market in the 2002 to 2003 period. Right now I have a big question mark on energy, I love this sector. Many MLPs (Master Limited Partnerships) have been killed in the past two weeks. These yield on the dividend 7 to 11 plus percent. The question is - if energy prices drop then the stocks should correct to adjust for that. Crude Oil seems to have topped based on the technical picture, it came within a hair of hitting the PF target of 80 before seeing a big selloff. If also corrected back in that 2001 to 2002 period. If we are entering a new deflationary period, which this past few weeks of liquidity problems say we are.....then we could see a correction. However, we live in a whole new world now with China, until I see a top out in the BRIC, then demand will stay high for energy. The BRIC is changing the energy equation - and must be considered when looking at demand and price. One other part of this puzzle is the Utilities and its Index. It corrected from the 400 level down to under the 175 level from 2001 into year end 2002. This is deflation. Right now it has its head in the sky and is more overbought then in the last bear market correction. 342 is the trend line, we are at 491 - this is extreme overbought - more then in the 2001 topping period! We watch much, the puzzle is more complex today but can be solved. What I can add, these inflationist are destroying the globe, they have created just an obscene level of consumption - everyone wants to be like the US. Imagine everyone like the US that uses 25% of the globes energy. Unless we see a massive deflation spike to slow this down - the levels of pollution and global warming are nothing to what the future holds. It is rare when I see this talked about in the global warming saga - inflationist and money printing are the root cause. West

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (67482)	8/12/2007 5:27:52 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

SPX, August 3 - 9 set up just a perfection Bearish Rising Three formation (signals major market weakness, potential greater downside).........into a high wave candle on the 10th,(fight between bulls and bears - FED support). Until the crossunder breakdown (July 26th signaled)on the EMA index (SPX) I monitor turns bullish, do not even think long. Will alert here on Mish's board should that happen, if it does, get out of all short positions. The trend is your friend as Dr. Stoxx would say, befriend it. West