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To: mopgcw who wrote (896)	8/14/2007 12:29:40 AM
From: etchmeister	Respond to of 1138

No wonder GS is in trouble...as they fucked up 18 months ago - don't feel sorry for GS they have plenty of money stocks as the semi cycle seems to be on borrowed time from both an inventory and capacity perspective. To: mopgcw who wrote (862) 3/18/2006 3:25:24 AM From: mopgcw of 896 GS US Semi & SPE: GS Tech Conference Day 1 - Product cycle stories stand out Semi and SPE takeaways from Day 1 at the GS Tech Conference: 1) Semi companies are very bullish about business trends but are clearly less confident when the conversations shift to inventory issues, which only fuels our fears about a repeat of the 2004 inventory driven downturn, 2) Semi equipment companies are also very bullish about continued order growth into CQ2?06 and, while admitting visibility is limited for H2?06, SPE managements are hopeful about continued order growth throughout the year, 3) Our own take is that our meetings on Day 1 of the conference lead us to believe that the product cycle driven stories in both semis and SPE (i.e. MRVL, BRCM and FORM) are now, more than ever, the most attractive options for investors over the more cyclically driven stocks as the semi cycle seems to be on borrowed time from both an inventory and capacity perspective.

To: mopgcw who wrote (896)	9/12/2007 11:01:35 PM
From: EACarl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1138

RE "12-month price target of $7.......based on an 18X multiple" GS is living in fantasyland - or wanting really cheap shares. There comes a point when a stock doesn't get valued on P/E. BRKS (even after the large buyback) has about $4 in net cash per share. So GS's $7 price tag means that BRKS (the companys operations) is worth $3 per share. That's about a price to sales ratio of .25. Never seen a profitable semi-equip stock with a rock solid balance sheet sell that cheap unless the sector was in absolute collapse like OCT 98 or OCT 02, and fundamentals are much more smoothed out these days. Well, I suppose if BRKS gets to $7, I'll be banking on an easy double or triple from there. ;-) except I will not be waiting that long to pull the trigger. Welcome other constructive opinions.........