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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: y2kate who wrote (147828)	8/12/2007 7:32:40 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Primary trend? Referring to the 200 year trend? Sure it is. But really what does that have to do with anything? With all due respect, the DOW, during this "primary trend" has had bears where it got cut in half Kate. Not saying that's what is happening now but if you want to stick around on the long side while that happens you may have to wait an awfully long time to break even. Ask someone who bought the DOW at the 1966 peak about the primary trend because after inflation it took them until the early 90's to break even! Again, not saying that's what's occurring but I think you get my point. As for the fear factor and sentiment analysis to which you refer, in general that concept is true. But its a fuzzy science at best and we have no clue how bearish things have to get for the market to bottom. As for the alleged "panic selling" here's something to chew on, for the week ending August 8th, equity funds saw $9.8 Billion dollars of inflows! Fear? What fear? There is no selling from the public at all yet. Surprising to me, but those are indeed the numbers and it supports a further decline. As for accumulation on the brokers, that was one of the main charts warning of the decline in the first place. Along with the trannies it was my main clue. That ending diagonal that I have yapped about ad nauseum is serious...and terminal. It should not be ignored. Further to my last point, all this sentiment stuff is secondary to the charts, many of which are simply busted. This is a trading thread and we don't decide the trend, the market does. Whether you are a permabear a permabull, the object here is to profit from the trend. Right now the near-term trend is down and based on what I see has much farther to fall. In the end you have to make your own decisions Kate, but I am starting to get the impression that its a bull vs. bear thing for you. That's simply not the case, hell its been a loooong time since I have been bearish. I get no great joy out of a bear wave, but what I do get great joy out of is a strong trend wave because that is where the most money is made.