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Strategies & Market Trends : Contrarian Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcyhuang who wrote (1474)	8/13/2007 6:45:13 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 4080

Message 23740892 It is not possible to predict crashes, so whether we do or not is anyone's best guess. Too many hedge funds are short volativity from 10-12. These funds are now hurting.

To: pcyhuang who wrote (1474)	8/13/2007 7:12:12 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 4080

I'm now straddling - long August calls (from Friday), long December puts. No idea if that's right, but I don't think the most severe bond crisis in Europe since the 30-s and in the US since the early 80-s is properly discounted by the stock market down marginally from the all-time highs. We'll see. We are in the "tail" of probability distribution. A lot of liquidity has been injected into the system late last week, and a lot of August puts are in the money, which is the reason for my August calls, but I expect the credit crunch to get worse over time. The credit bubble may have popped.