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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (84910)	8/13/2007 10:25:43 AM
From: daveinmarinca	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"big commercials are much more smarter that I am"....I agree on most investment areas, however, they are missing this one....lulled by decades of plentiful oil and low growth in third world (Chindia) countries plus the "technology will save us" mantra, they think alternate energy and new discoveries will save us. It will be decades before alternate energy and non-conventional oil begins to fill the transportation fuel gap. No one has a fix on cheap cellulosic alcohol nor bio-diesel. We have a long way to go (decades) on solar and battery technology to make the electric car affordable by the masses. We've discovered all the big conventional oil resources....sure the Middle East has a lot of oil, however, there are no more mega fields to be found....Bakhtiari estimates Iraq at 200 billion and Iran (and the rest of the ME) is already in depletion, and, incidentally, exporting countries internal consumption is growing which will take priority over export. Meanwhile, Chindia will build millions of the $2000 Tata four seater automobiles...mimicking the Fiat Cinquecento experience in Italy in the sixties (I was there :<) which got the Italians off their bikes and motor scooters and into cars, only on a much more massive scale. Unfortunately, the contributors to The Oil Drum "are much more smarter than both I and the commercials are". Its different this time and, IMHO, the "plateau", price and supply curves in Fig. 1 are correct.