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To: ChanceIs who wrote (84931)8/13/2007 9:33:04 AM
From: Travis_BickleRespond to of 306849
 
Have you ever seen the movie "The Princess Bride"? There is a genius bad guy named Vicini who keeps saying "Inconceivable!!!" whenever things don't turn out the way he expected.

Finally one of his cohorts says:

"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."



To: ChanceIs who wrote (84931)8/13/2007 9:41:51 AM
From: MulhollandDriveRespond to of 306849
 
those relatively minor anomalies escalated quickly this week, exploding into a global rout for quantitative funds by Wednesday.

'relatively minor anomalies'

yes, tis but a flesh wound

youtube.com

fed adding more liquidity this a.m......hope it gets to the right people!!



To: ChanceIs who wrote (84931)8/13/2007 9:47:47 AM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 306849
 
<Events that models only predicted would happen once in 10,000 years happened every day for three days.">

That's due entirely to this fact:

when everyone tries to make money betting against the same unlikely event, they are ensuring that it will in fact occur very soon.

BC



To: ChanceIs who wrote (84931)8/13/2007 12:02:58 PM
From: RockyBalboaRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
Didn't they learn anything?? Forgot everything within a decade?

The last time someone leaned towards a similar statistical model estimate was in 1998. And you all know what happened. Back then they estimated it a million years event.

"When Genius failed."

also known as the LTCM debacle.