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To: Shack who wrote (148079)	8/14/2007 4:58:56 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

FWIW, I have this as the most sustained panic selling since October 1978. I'm still of the view that this will likely turn up hard, but am also 2% underwater from the first time I posted that view. -g/ng

To: Shack who wrote (148079)	8/14/2007 5:08:15 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 209892

I'm glad that came through as lucid thought. One of the main reasons I post is to try to systematically lay down my own thinking - works well to set it down in writing, for peer review (assuming you would consider me a peer despite novice-level Elliot knowledge!) I was rushing to try to post before the close. I was evaluating the probability of a gap down at tomorrow's open. I actually would say the gap down is the most likely scenario. Gap down, set a trap for a few more bears, and then run it through them for a rousing short-covering rally into options expiration. So I'll be kicking myself if it gaps down and I didn't sell the close today. It would have been easiest to sell the close today, and buy it if there's a gap down. But I have to decide if I'm going to try to time moves like that. I've already decided that I'm not going to try to ride any short covering rallies at this point - picking up nickels in front of steam rollers isn't my idea of intelligent behavior. I'm just trying to tune my overall exposure for what I think is likely the first major move of a brand new bear market. Are you following the money market developments? That kinda thing is the stuff that good 'ol fashioned panics are made of. The people change, times change, but people don't change. BC