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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (793)	8/16/2007 8:18:06 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 71456

No, I'm not even sure about gold if there is a calamity. Yen will rally. Gold could break out too, but gold stocks are "paper". 300-400 SP points decline from top would be normal for a long-term bullish 4-year cycle. We have just been very far from norm in valuing risk.

To: Amelia Carhartt who wrote (793)	8/16/2007 8:50:32 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 71456

Dollar will crash eventually, IMHO. This is exactly the calamity the Fed is now trying hard to prevent, by not printing and not easing. High volativity is just part of the process. Gold shares should decouple in depression scenario, but it is more than likely they will crash with the market if the market has a crash, that is. Gold itself may decline, but I don't expect anything too drastic. Gold is like Yen, carry trade currency. However, it too has been overowned by hedge funds and such, on all this credit liquidity which is now evaporating fast. Once the Fed steps in with printing press and cuts to save stocks, the game is over for the dollar. They will have to print a lot to replace all the bad debt, and they will eventually. In the meantime, gold may correct some more.