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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (13377)8/16/2007 5:15:23 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 224748
 
Let Market, Not Government, Deal With Subprime Mortgage Problem
By DICK ARMEY | Posted Wednesday, August 15, 2007 4:30 PM PT

For many, the American dream starts with homeownership. Purchasing a home is usually a family's largest financial commitment. A home is not just a personal investment. It is an investment in the community and an affirmation of our fundamental value of private property.

Since we are all touched by the housing market, any turmoil in the housing sector grabs attention and emotions, as evidenced by the recent coverage of the subprime mortgage meltdown and "crisis." But should we be preparing for the next Great Depression, and do we need the federal government to save us?

Unfortunately, the media have a tendency to sensationalize stories, and, by nature, politicians will attempt to get in front of any issue to promote themselves.

When you go beyond the demagoguery and look at the economics, it is clear the mortgage market is correcting itself and that a government bailout would only make matters worse.

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Standard home loans (85% of all mortgages) are made after a thorough evaluation of an individual's credit and job history. Traditionally, only those with high credit scores and a stable job history were eligible for these "prime" home loans. But since 2000, lenders have increasingly offered home loans to folks with weaker credit and less consistent job histories who would not qualify for standard mortgages.

Subprime loans have expanded homeownership by introducing new, risk-laden borrowers to the market. As in any market, the price of a loan reflects this added risk by the lender. Even in the best of times, subprime loans are much more likely to go into default, given their greater inherent risk.

Home loans today are typically bundled into mortgage-backed securities and sold to investors. These securities help manage risk for a given pool of mortgages, but they can't identify the specific risk of default for any individual mortgage in the pool.

In the wake of the housing market correction, some subprime mortgages are falling into foreclosure.

Given the slowdown, Wall Street and other investors in mortgage-backed securities are re-evaluating their willingness to buy housing-backed instruments, and uncertainty still exists with respect to the full scope of the problem. Many holders of these securities do not know how many of the subprime loans they own will actually end up in foreclosure, and the market is having difficultly pricing this uncertainty.

Let's put this in perspective. For all of the media's hysteria, less than 15% of the 44 million mortgages in America are in the subprime sector. As a total of all mortgages, foreclosure rates are 0.6%, up slightly from 0.5% last year.

While these foreclosures are often individually difficult, this hardly has the potential for wholesale economic catastrophe. Losses are estimated to be $35 billion at most — equivalent to a stock market decline of 0.2%, according to Stephen Cecchetti of Brandeis University.

The real estate and mortgage markets are a textbook example of a market imbalance and its inevitable correction. Lenders overexposed to subprime loans, such as New Century, lost their bets and are now in bankruptcy. While the subprime market will be painful in the short term, it will inevitably lead to a healthier economy in the long run.

The real threat to the economy is not the foreclosure rate, but that government will overreact, especially if the motives are driven by impulsive populist politics. Chances are, by the time hearings are held and legislation is passed, the market correction will be over. Unfortunately the new regulations would be permanent. A short-term market correction could lead to long-term anti-competitive regulations and slower economic growth.

On the campaign trail, Sen. Hillary Clinton has already proposed a $2 billion federal intervention, and went as far as to actually propose the federal government build more rental housing. This would depress housing prices by expanding the already burgeoning housing stock in a market recovering from the last housing boom.

Plus, a federal bailout with taxpayer guarantees creates what economists call a moral hazard, which would only encourage more risky loans, paving the way for the next financial crisis.

Sen. Chuck Schumer is also going beyond rhetoric and actually authoring anti-competitive legislation to increase regulation of the mortgage market. With this bill's vague language calling for "good faith" and "reasonable diligence," trial lawyers would be the only winners in this piece of "consumer" legislation.

Sentimentality cannot replace the disciplining effects of profit and loss in the marketplace. Lenders, for fear of being exposed to lawsuits, would abandon the subprime lending market entirely, again restricting the chance of homeownership for many individuals.

The Census Bureau shows that homeownership rates stagnated at approximately 60% from the 1960s to the 1990s. Subprime loans opened up homeownership to a segment of the population that did not normally qualify for mortgages, and homeownership rates jumped to nearly 70%. Most subprime borrowers are in fine shape, and we should applaud this massive expansion in homeownership.

One of my axioms is the market is rational and the government is dumb. Let the market find a rational solution to the subprime mortgage correction on its own.

It is not the proper place for government to bail out lenders who made wrong bets or homeowners who made investments they could not maintain.

Armey, House majority leader from 1995 to 2003, is chairman of FreedomWorks Foundation.



To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (13377)8/16/2007 7:43:17 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 224748
 
The current crisis is the result of the normal ebb and flows of credit cycles, and the free market will amply handle the correction that is already happening. Calls for Federal Reserve intervention or for other governmental involvement -- including an increase of the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac lending limits -- must be rejected.

In the free market, those that made bad credit decisions must be allowed to pay the price, and only by paying dearly can lessons truly be learned. Borrowers who were unwitting and took on too much debt must learn that there are consequences for their actions. Homebuilders that built too many homes or overpaid for land need to face the consequences. Wall Street firms that provided credit to all of these activities with too much laxity must also pay a price. This is all part of a healthy correction.

All of these players reaped benefits during the housing boom that preceded the current crisis. Certain homeowners were able to temporarily live above their means. Homebuilder and bank profits have been exorbitant, and shareholders and executives of these companies have profited mightily in the boom. To not permit losses now would be a direct violation of the free-market ideals at the foundation of our economy.

Mr. Penner is a principal with the firm Lubert-Adler and is the managing partner of PGP, a real-estate investment firm. In the 1990s, as CEO of Nomura Capital, he helped pioneer the application of securitization technology to real-estate finance.
Fannie, Freddie and the Housing Bust
By ETHAN PENNER
August 16, 2007; Page A11



To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (13377)8/19/2007 8:03:14 AM
From: Hope Praytochange  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 224748
 
Loan by Loan, the Making of a Credit Squeeze
(the witch wants to use taxpayer money to bail out people refinanced their house to pay credit card loans)
By STEVE LOHR
Published: August 19, 2007
THREE years ago, Martin and Jennifer Cossette bought into the dream of homeownership — the quintessentially American ideal of personal striving and family stability celebrated by politicians, promoted by Madison Avenue and financed by Wall Street.

Martin Cossette, with his son, Steven, is now a renter.
The modest Cape Cod-style house, in Meriden, Conn., had three bedrooms, and a backyard for their young son, Steven. Like so many families, they stretched to buy their first home. In the red-hot housing market at the time, they put no money down and got a mortgage for its entire $180,000 price tag. They had qualms but too few, as reassuring lenders spoke of rising housing prices, falling interest rates and easy access to future loans.

None of it turned out that way. There were unforeseen expenses: a new furnace, stove and garage door. Bills mounted and credit card debt got out of hand. They refinanced in late 2005, folding other debts into the mortgage, but that proved to be only a stopgap.

Earlier this year, the Cossettes filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 13, used by wage earners who want to hold onto their homes. But the monthly payments on the $230,000 mortgage were $1,800, 40 percent higher than the first mortgage, and headed even higher. So they decided to let the house go. “We were totally naïve,” said Mr. Cossette, a purchasing agent for a warehouse company.

Families like the Cossettes are the individual faces of the American credit crunch of 2007. The economic bite of the credit squeeze, which began with troubles in the market for higher-risk home loans, like the one made to the Cossettes, continued to intensify last week. Stock markets around the globe were pummeled by worries about the squeeze’s ripple effect. Businesses and savers far removed from the housing fallout, from the shares of industrial companies to 401(k) retirement accounts, suffered losses.

Consumer confidence is slipping. Countrywide Financial, the nation’s largest mortgage lender, was forced Thursday to tap $11.5 billion in emergency loans from 40 of the world’s largest banks. The Federal Reserve took a dramatic step on Friday, cutting the rate it charges banks for loans to add liquidity and steady the financial markets. The Fed explained its move by saying that the risk to the economy from the credit squeeze had increased “appreciably.”

The fallout extends from hedge fund managers to rank-and-file investors, but the most personally punishing setback is a family losing its home.

About 1.7 million households will lose their homes to foreclosure this year and next, according to estimates by Moody’s Economy.com. That would be nearly double the number of the previous two years.

Looking at foreclosure warning signs like loan delinquency and default rates, which are spiking, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Economy.com, said the outlook was “very dark,” largely because of the current “self-reinforcing downward cycle” of falling house prices, loan defaults and credit tightening that pushes house prices down further.

There are regional and local differences, to be sure. Problems tend to be more pronounced in a few Midwestern states with weak economies, like Michigan and Ohio, and states with the greatest concentration of subprime loans, like California, Florida and Nevada. “But the trouble is not just a few places. It’s coast to coast now,” Mr. Zandi said.

As the squeeze on homeowners becomes worse, the political debate over how to address the problem will intensify. Earlier this month, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, called for a crackdown on mortgage brokers who engage in so-called predatory lending, and a $1 billion federal fund to help families avoid foreclosure.

Senators Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut and Charles E. Schumer of New York, both Democrats, recently urged federal regulators to ease restrictions so that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two giant mortgage agencies, could buy more mortgages and mortgage-backed securities from lenders to add fresh capital to the home credit markets. The lenders, then, would presumably have to use the new capital to refinance loans for borrowers facing default and foreclosure.

Congress is looking hard at changing the bankruptcy law so courts can restructure home loans as they do other personal loans like credit card debt. The goal, proponents say, would be to update the bankruptcy code in line with realities of the modern mortgage market.

In Chapter 13, a borrower’s mortgage obligation remains intact. The most that a person gets is extra time to catch up on payments in arrears, but every nickel on the mortgage must be paid.

The bankruptcy code went through a major revision two years ago, in what was seen as a triumph for banks and other lenders. The revision made it harder for people to declare bankruptcy, especially a Chapter 7, or “straight bankruptcy,” in which everything is liquidated, by setting tighter income and means tests to qualify. The 2005 amendments also set more stringent rules for writing down unsecured debt, notably credit card debt.

PROTECTION for the mortgage lender has been unchanged since the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1978. At the time, first-time home buyers paid about 20 percent of the value of the houses upfront, got fixed-rate mortgages, and the lenders were local bankers — serious, skeptical types who scrutinized borrowers. Homeowners agreed to mortgages they could afford. When they ran into financial troubles, it was typically because of some unforeseen event in their lives like the loss of a job, an illness or a divorce. The mortgage was rarely the problem.

Yet the mortgage often is the financial culprit these days. That is particularly true of lending in the subprime market of zero-down loans with terms fixed for two years and then floating rates, arranged by aggressive national mortgage brokers and bankers who earn lucrative fees.

“The bankruptcy law was written for a different world, and we want to give the bankruptcy courts, and creditors, more flexible tools to work with borrowers to save their homes,” said Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois.

In September, Mr. Durbin, the Democratic whip, plans to propose amendments to the bankruptcy code, in a bill called the Helping Families Avoid Foreclosure Act. It would, among other things, permit writing down loans and stretching out payment terms.

Some bankruptcy experts agree that it is time to change the law. “Our bankruptcy laws are not well designed to deal with a massive wave of mortgage foreclosures,” said Elizabeth Warren, a professor at the Harvard Law School. In particular, Ms. Warren said, bankruptcy courts should be able to rewrite mortgages in line with market conditions.

The banking industry, which pushed hard for the tougher bankruptcy law in 2005, wants no easing up now.

For people struggling to hold onto their homes, the path to financial peril usually began with bad loans. Bad choices often made matters worse.

That is the story Neil Crane hears and sees every day in Connecticut, a state that closely tracks the national trends in mortgage loan delinquencies and defaults. Mr. Crane, a lawyer in Hamden, Conn., has been handling personal bankruptcies for 25 years. Business is brisk. His office takes on 30 new cases a month, a 50 percent increase in the last year and a half.

His clients, including the Cossettes, are families typically with household incomes of $65,000 to $90,000 a year. In the past, Mr. Crane said, it was usually the loss of a job, a lengthy illness or another unexpected setback that pushed people into bankruptcy.

“But what we see now are people who refinanced to pay existing bills, with the encouragement of lenders, on very poor terms that only worsened their problems,” he said. “If you sat in at the mortgage closing, you could have predicted the bankruptcy.”

Joseph and Lu-Ann Horn bought their 1,200-square-foot, three-bedroom home in South Windsor, Conn., in 2002, paying for nearly all of it with a $150,000 loan. The mortgage was a 30-year loan with a fixed rate of 7.5 percent. Two years later, they decided to refinance to pay off their truck and their credit card debt and to buy a $4,000 motorcycle.

The new mortgage was for $198,000, at a fixed rate of about 8 percent for two years and variable rates afterward. The monthly payment was about $1,600. The mortgage broker, Mr. Horn said, told them not to worry about the variable rate because they could refinance in two years and lock in a fixed rate again.

“They basically put us in a loan that they knew we couldn’t pay,” Mr. Horn said. “We never should have done it.”

When the fixed rate expired last year, the Horns found no willing lenders. The interest rate has jumped and the monthly payments rose to nearly $2,200, Ms. Horn said. “It just goes up and up,” she said.

Mr. Horn, 34, is a truck driver and Ms. Horn, 39, is an assistant manager in a fast-food restaurant. They make about $70,000 a year, but with two children and other expenses they fell behind on the mortgage. They have been served with foreclosure papers, and have filed for Chapter 13. “We’re fighting to hold onto the house now,” Ms. Horn said.

For Sue Ellis, 47, a nurse in Northford, Conn., the road to bankruptcy began with a home improvement project six years ago. “If I had it to do over again, I never would have redone my kitchen,” she said.

The first refinancing added $40,000 to her original mortgage of $140,000 on the small ranch house she bought in 1997. She was a single parent and wanted to have a backyard for her two children. The monthly payment on the original mortgage was about $850.

Ms. Ellis has since remarried, and she and her husband, Robert, a salesman at an industrial equipment company, make about $85,000 a year. But the higher mortgage and other bills led to two more refinancings, in 2003 and 2005, each to pay off about $40,000 in credit card debt. “We were using credit cards to pay the bills and then we refinanced to pay off the credit cards,” she said. “It’s a vicious cycle.”

Today, her mortgage debt is $260,000, and her monthly payments are $2,400. The value of her house, said Mr. Crane, her lawyer, is about $200,000. Ms. Ellis is a month behind in her mortgage payment and is not in foreclosure yet. But she has also accumulated more than $20,000 in credit card debt, and she is filing for Chapter 13 bankruptcy.

FOR people in Chapter 13 and facing foreclosure, the struggle to hold onto a home will be an uphill battle. Bankruptcy buys a few months of relief from creditors. Mr. Crane urges his clients to use the breathing room to build up a small cushion of savings and to pare back all expenses. Life’s small frills — restaurant meals, movies, Starbucks coffee — are jettisoned. Brown-bag lunches can save a few dollars a day.

The goal, Mr. Crane said, is to establish 12 months of timely mortgage payments and then, with court approval, refinance into a lower-interest, fixed-rate mortgage — and to take advantage of any new federal or state programs to help homeowners.

For Mr. Cossette, 37, who is now a renter, homeownership no longer has much allure. “You put your life’s sweat into a piece of real estate that may or may not go up in value,” he said. “So I don’t have a house. That’s O.K. with me.”

Mr. Cossette said he may never again own a house. He would not consider buying, unless he could put 20 percent down, he said. His experience with the home lending system has left him understandably jaded, and he has a suggestion for policy makers.

“Hopefully, they will make it harder for people to buy houses in the long run,” Mr. Cossette said. “Maybe others can learn from this.”