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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mrs. OMalley who wrote (6057)	8/18/2007 11:41:31 AM
From: CapitalistHogg™	Respond to of 50383

I've another question. Do you think the yen carry leverage has been completely wrung out of the market, or more to go? This is a great question. Starting back on 2/28 i believed that we were heading into at least a 10% market wide (equity) correction, in a larger bull market, that would start the unwinding of the FX carry trade. i began selling off my longs at the beginning of the year anticipating a correction that seemed to me started 2/28. 2/28 was the mother of all head fakes, i really really believed that what i saw unfolding in real time was the start of the carry trade unwind. the whole "glitch in the system" peddled by the NYSE only added fuel to my fire. so i shorted AUDJPY GBPJPY and went long USDCAD with a ton of leverage. at first it was beautiful, dollars piled up fast and in large size as the carry unwound. it was exciting! then i made a 'fat finger' mistake and was relieved of all my profits. undeterred i plunged back in testing the waters but the tide had pulled back in. the following months i made strike after strike thinking maybe it (yen/market) would bounce off low's then double top, then just shear force of conviction...none of which proved profitable in the time frame that i was willing to devote to it. losses piled up and conviction in any of my ideas went to the trash heap. so what is different THIS time? the arguments have not budged. they ALWAYS seem to come up with something to save the day. why won't they just continue to do that? If the whole ball of wax is over you will see it in the top tier financials and the Yen/carry with increasing volatility, and no bottoming. If the sky is NOT falling then the reverse should be true. decreased volatility should lead to carry trade remaining intact.