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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Geoff Altman who wrote (21916)8/20/2007 2:06:22 AM
From: Peter Dierks  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71588
 
Thanks, I saw that on Josh's subject and thought about bringing it here, and you did it.



To: Geoff Altman who wrote (21916)8/26/2007 2:28:10 AM
From: Peter Dierks  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71588
 
The greens try to sue their way to an energy policy.

Thursday, August 23, 2007 12:01 a.m. EDT

Just about everyone claims the U.S. must urgently become "energy independent," yet at the same time just about every policy that may actually serve that goal is met with environmentalist opposition. That contradiction has impeded the Bush Administration's attempts to increase domestic energy production. And even the modest progress so far may be blocked because litigation is driving the conflict out of politics and into the courts.

To see this trend at work, look north to Alaska, where lawsuits are blocking an offshore drilling program. Last week, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals granted an emergency stay that will suspend all operations until at least September, when the court will hear full arguments. The decision noted that the litigants--environmental pressure groups like the Natural Resources Defense Council--had shown "a probability of success on the merits." Uh-oh.

This is bad news for Shell, whose three-year exploration program in the Beaufort Sea was green-lighted by the Department of the Interior in February. The company planned to sink up to four temporary wells this summer to determine the available resources. But there's a limited open-water window before the winter ice moves back in, so the Ninth Circuit could delay work for a year, even if it decides in Shell's favor.

The worst ramifications, however, could hit environmental and regulatory law. The greens argue that the environmental review process of the Interior agency responsible for domestic energy leasing, the Minerals Management Service, was incomplete. Allegedly, there are not enough protections for bowhead whales as they migrate to their winter grounds. They also say that the program could affect other wildlife and that there could be oil spills.

In fact MMS conducts a comprehensive environmental review. Ultimately, it found that the project would have "no significant impact" on the ecosystem. The agency has also spent more than $20 million studying the feeding and migratory behavior of the bowhead whales in the Beaufort Sea. Based on that research, it attached additional approval conditions on Shell beyond the statutory law designed to mitigate any possible effects.

Part of the environmental complaint was that Shell would disrupt the Inupiat Eskimos' annual subsistence whale hunt. But the company brokered a "conflict avoidance agreement" that will stop all work for part of the migration season. As for oil spills, the two drill ships Shell would deploy were specially engineered to operate safely in the conditions of the Beaufort Sea. Plus, they'd be attended by an armada of barges to respond in case of an accident.

Even this painstaking and very expensive process wasn't enough. In short, it's hard to imagine any further precautions that would satisfy the environmentalists--short of a total ban on offshore drilling, which of course is their real objective. The environmentalists are pursuing a litigation strategy against every government agency involved. They have appealed decisions of the Environmental Protection Agency, threatened to sue the National Marine Fisheries Service, among others, and even sued to retroactively roll back all lease sales. With the Ninth Circuit, they finally found a court partner amenable to their demands.

Precisely because of the stringency of the review process, the environmentalists are developing some creative legal theories. The 1970 National Environmental Policy Act requires an Environmental Impact Statement. This orders the government to consider a "range of alternatives" when issuing any permits, and then to choose the one that offers "maximum protection" to the environment. The greens say that the option that provides "maximum protection" is not drilling. Ergo, the courts should stretch the statute to ban any exploration whatsoever.

But Congress and the executive are charged with determining what areas should be opened to development, balancing the public interest with environmental concerns. The law then provides for "maximum protection" within that context, which MMS has clearly done here.

The public interest in this case is domestic energy. The U.S. is one of the only countries in the world that chooses to lock up its natural resources. Since 2003, the Administration and Congress have lifted the federal moratoria on a few select areas of the Outer Continental Shelf. The Beaufort basin, which is estimated to hold 27.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 8.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil, was one of those. A successful exploratory program could open a new frontier of energy.

That public purpose is what drives the greens bonkers, so they're trying to create a legal backstop to prevent any Administration from doing what President Bush has done. The Shell case shows that even a long and expensive effort to address every conceivable concern can still be undone by lawsuits. If anyone wants to know why we're still "dependent on foreign oil," this is it.

opinionjournal.com



To: Geoff Altman who wrote (21916)10/29/2007 1:00:35 AM
From: Peter Dierks  Respond to of 71588
 
Adding Values
Rank and file evangelicals aren't moving left or right.

BY NAOMI SCHAEFER RILEY
Friday, October 26, 2007 12:01 a.m. EDT

"Values are insubstantial stuff, existing primarily in the imagination," Allan Bloom wrote in "The Closing of the American Mind" (1987). During the Cold War, the language of "values"--in which beliefs about good and evil are deemed purely subjective--worked well for relativists and, not least, peaceniks, as Mr. Bloom explained. If the U.S. and the Soviet Union merely had different "values," there was no real need for confrontation.

Such language now appears to be serving the same purpose in the culture war. After polling suggested that people who voted on the basis of "values" were key to President Bush's 2004 re-election, members of what used to be known unambiguously as the Religious Right took to calling themselves "values voters." The cultural left has understood this language shift as a sign that maybe we can all be friends.

Two weeks ago, Third Way, a self-described "strategy center for progressives," released a document called "Come Let Us Reason Together: A Fresh Look at Shared Cultural Values Between Evangelicals and Progressives." It amounted to a broad statement of principle signed by folks like Joel Hunter, a Florida mega-church pastor, David Gushee, a Christianity Today contributor, and other less-than-prominent progressives and evangelicals. Jill Pike, Third Way's deputy director of public affairs, emailed me to say that, by trying to bridge the gap between the two groups, "we are not talking about compromising each other's values but instead creating an approach that will inevitably lend itself to progress and change." The statement itself asserts that the two groups want "the same protections, public benefits, and opportunities" for gays and lesbians. The signers also agree that, to reduce the incidence of abortion, young people need better access to contraception and more sex education. Well, at least evangelicals' values weren't compromised!

In fact, outreach initiatives are coming from both sides. A few days earlier, in Washington, D.C., the National Association of Evangelicals (NAE) held its annual meeting, with Ban-Ki Moon, the United Nations secretary-general, as its guest speaker. For a religious group that has traditionally been skeptical of anything resembling "world government," this invitation was quite a step. "Some people will say the evangelical Christians have invited the Antichrist to the Last Supper," NAE president Richard Cizik told the crowd. But he explained that he was interested in hearing Mr. Ban (a Christian) talk about the U.N.'s Millennium Development Goals--which include reducing poverty, increasing literacy rates and fighting AIDS, as well as ensuring environmental sustainability, promoting gender equity and empowering women. "Most evangelicals would support those values," he said of the MDGs--even if it takes a world-government sort of institution to achieve them, apparently.

Mr. Cizik is now somewhat notorious for such claims. Naturally, he has come under attack for them. In March, two-dozen prominent evangelicals sent a letter to the NAE board requesting his ouster, on the grounds that the association should stick to traditional social issues rather than get into environmentalism (what Mr. Cizik calls "creation care") and other seemingly liberal causes. Nor were evangelical leaders pleased when NAE representatives, over the summer, met with several leaders of Arab nations to assure them that American evangelicals are committed to a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Mr. Cizik has retained his position, but the evangelical rank and file is still stewing. Danny Wood, the pastor of the 5,000-member Shades Mountain Baptist Church, in Birmingham, Ala., is deeply skeptical of evangelicals' embracing the idea of global warming and other "outlandish claims of environmentalists." Bill Hay, the pastor of Covenant Presbyterian Church a few miles away, makes a point of telling me that his denomination, the Presbyterian Church in America, debated leaving the NAE over Mr. Cizik's activities.

Last weekend, some of Mr. Cizik's biggest critics met during the Family Research Council's "Washington Briefing." It was billed as "the largest gathering of values voters from across the country," but the speakers provided less values-talk and more of that old-time religion. Tony Perkins, the president of the Family Research Council, said of Third Way and its gap-bridging efforts: "If this is 'common ground,' we'd prefer to stand our own ground in defense of the natural definition of marriage and family and the unalienable right to life of every unborn child."

The GOP presidential hopefuls at the conference heard a lot of this sort of uncompromising message. The most prominent among them, like Rudy Giuliani, hold positions that are, for most evangelicals, too close to "common ground" for comfort. James Dobson, honored at a dinner Saturday night, has recently expressed his frustration with the GOP field. He is floating the idea of supporting a third-party candidate if the Republican nominee is not socially conservative enough.

Most evangelicals do not seem ready to follow the progressives into the wilderness of environmentalism, but neither do they seem especially moved by Mr. Dobson's third-party plans. Mr. Wood, the Birmingham pastor, tries to imagine the scenario: "So what I'm going to do is pull the Republican base and go 'nanny nanny boo boo'? And then the Democrats win? That doesn't make any sense to me."

Still, evangelicals have clearly lost their enthusiasm for the GOP. A recent poll by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life paints the picture: "Throughout Bush's first term, party identification among younger white evangelicals remained relatively stable, but since 2005 the group's Republican affiliation has dropped significantly--by 15 percentage points." The study notes, however, that "the shift away from the GOP has not resulted in substantial Democratic gains." In short, evangelicals seem adrift.

This development does not bode well for Republican turnout during next fall's presidential campaign. And who can place a value on that?

Ms. Riley is The Wall Street Journal's deputy Taste editor.


opinionjournal.com



To: Geoff Altman who wrote (21916)1/11/2008 4:30:03 PM
From: Peter Dierks  Respond to of 71588
 
Cuba's Transition Begins
By BRIAN LATELL
January 7, 2008; Page A12

Without a hint of irony, Fidel Castro asserted twice last month in columns in Cuba's Granma newspaper, that he is not one "to cling to power." The truth is that few world leaders in modern times have ruled as long as he has. On New Year's Day he began the 50th year of his dictatorship.

But now, at the age of 81, handicapped and incapable of providing coherent leadership, the end of his historic reign is imminent. He has not been seen in public for more than 17 months after ceding authority "provisionally" to his brother Raúl, Cuba's defense minister.


During his incapacitation there have been no reports of Communist Party officials seeking his counsel, carrying out his directives, or even taking initiatives in his name. When pressed to comment on Fidel's condition and role in the leadership, Cuban officials lately have been saying mainly that he continues to inspire them and provide ideas.

So it seems all but certain that, voluntarily or not, he'll vacate the Cuban presidency early this year, though he may symbolically hold onto some new, wholly honorific title.

The transition at the top will probably set in motion cascading reassignments of civilian and military officials. Raúl Castro will call the shots, but mostly from behind the scenes. With his own bases of support in the armed forces that he has run since 1959, the security services he has controlled since 1989, and the Communist Party he manages, he has the power and legitimacy to preside over the succession. He has been the designated heir since January 1959. And at the age of 76, with many years of hard drinking under his belt, he is probably viewed by most in the leadership as a transitional figure, better to be courted than challenged.

Raúl's style guarantees that Cuba will be governed differently. He'll rule more collegially than his brother, consulting trusted subordinates and delegating more. During the interregnum he has worked with officials of different generations and pedigrees, even promoting one long-time archrival to create a united front after his brother's initial withdrawal.

On his watch, Raúl has broken some previously sacred crockery as well. He has admitted that Cuba's many problems are systemic. In his disarmingly accurate view, it is not the American embargo or "imperialism" that are the cause of problems on the island, as his brother always insisted, but rather the regime's own mistakes and mindsets. He has called on Cubans, especially the youth, to "debate fearlessly" and help devise solutions for the failures. Candid discussions at the grassroots level have proliferated.

Yet like his brother, Raúl has no intention of opening Cuba to free political speech or participation. While the number of Cubans willing to voice their discontent publicly is on the increase, so too is the brutality of government reprisals against would-be leaders of the dissident movement. By acknowledging state failures, Raúl is playing with fire, and if the lid is going to be kept on, those challenging the regime have to pay a price. As to his own future, in the leadership realignments he plans, he will probably move up one rank and assume command of the Communist Party as first secretary.

In an address last July dedicated primarily to massive failures in agriculture, Raúl called for "structural and conceptual" change. Given his past sympathetic references to the laws of supply and demand, his advocacy of liberalizing economic reforms in the 1990s, and the many for-profit enterprises his military officers have been encouraged to run, he probably plans to introduce market incentives in the countryside. That might prove the first step toward adopting something akin to the Chinese or Vietnamese economic development models.

It has been Raúl's preference since the earliest days of his partnership with Fidel to work inconspicuously in the background. As they have been doing since Fidel's confinement, others will represent Cuba abroad and preside at holiday events. Someone who is not named Castro will likely become Cuba's next president. There has never been a "third man" in the running for leadership. But legitimizing the longer-term succession is surely now one of Raúl's highest priorities. Politburo member and Vice President Carlos Lage is the leading candidate. A medical doctor 20 years younger than Raúl, Mr. Lage is widely considered an advocate of economic reform.

After nearly a half century of Fidel's suffocating control, the transition will be daunting. His successors are inheriting a bankrupt and broken system, a profoundly disgruntled populace, and acute economic problems. The worst of these are the dysfunctional public transportation and agricultural sectors, a housing shortage, decrepit infrastructure, unemployment and the widening gap in living standards between Cubans with access to hard currency and the more numerous poor who must subsist on worthless pesos.

And there is Hugo Chávez. Unlike Fidel, Raúl has no personal rapport with the mercurial Venezuelan president, and surely no desire to be subordinated to another narcissistic potentate just as he is finally close to escaping his brother's grip. But Cuba has become highly dependent economically on Venezuela. The value of the Chávez dole, mostly oil, reached between $3 billion and $4 billion last year, approaching the amounts once provided by the Soviet Union. Raúl would be loath to provoke the Venezuelan. Without his support, the Cuban economy would soon plunge into deep recession.

There is no way to know how skillfully Raúl Castro will lead and deal with inevitable crises once his brother is gone. He clearly wants to begin rectifying economic problems but knows that, for some time at least, he cannot broadly repudiate his brother's legacy. A powerful backlash could come from fidelista hard-liners in the leadership -- and perhaps from Mr. Chávez. In the end, however, it is the gamble Raúl will have to take.

Mr. Latell served as national intelligence officer for Latin America from 1990-1994 and is author of "After Fidel," (Palgrave Macmillan, 2005).

Mary Anastasia O'Grady is away.

online.wsj.com