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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (89548)8/18/2007 3:27:09 AM
From: Broken_Clock  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206195
 
GFDL simulation at landfall




To: Broken_Clock who wrote (89548)8/18/2007 8:33:35 AM
From: Dennis Roth  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206195
 
Tracking Model Forcasting Skill see Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog
wunderground.com
Most aren't worth a damn out past 96 hours. It's best not to get too worked up about tracking forecasts more than 100 hours out.



To: Broken_Clock who wrote (89548)8/18/2007 12:34:40 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206195
 
Derek Ortt is saying that the predicted tracks are too far south, because the strength of the low over the southern US has been underestimated. If he's right, then the GFDL model is more likely than the others (and still way too far south). If he's wrong then Cantarell may get walloped.....the track that takes it through Brownsville-Corpus Christi is probably the most benign for energy bears....