To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (341440 ) 8/18/2007 11:06:49 PM From: Giordano Bruno Respond to of 436258 What's Next Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the effects of the Fed's decision to cut the discount rate. But the near-term direction of stocks still hangs on "what shoes happen to drop" in the credit market, says Art Hogan, of Jefferies & Co. More news of frozen funds or troubled lenders would continue to rattle the stock market, he says. Georges Yared of Yared Investment Research thinks next week will bring some improvement, saying the Fed put in "a floor" -- but most analysts don't sound so sure the pain is over. "I don't think we're anywhere near out of the woods," says Charles Rotblut, of Zacks Investment Research. "Not only did the Fed do an about-face, the question is, what did they see that caused them to cut rates so much?" he asks. Mr. Rotblut thinks stocks -- especially in the absence of much economic data to trade on -- stand to keep falling next week. And though the Fed provided something of a break on Friday, the housing market remains in disorder, says Jack Ablin of Harris Private Bank. "I still think we need to examine what the ultimate economic implications are [of] the deteriorating housing market," he says. "Liquidity aside, we do have some heavy damage in the housing market, and we have to see how much impact there will be." A few pieces of economic data roll out -- namely, July new-home sales and durable-goods orders -- but they are few and far between and unlikely to drown out the market's predominant worry. "Surprise, surprise, new home sales will probably be weak," says Bob Pavlik, of Oaktree Asset Management, noting that data on housing starts and building permits this week did little to move stocks. Any indication that lenders such as Countrywide Financial are having less trouble accessing funds or that government-backed lenders such as Fannie Mae will be given special dispensation to buy more mortgages will likely be welcomed. But some investors fear financial-services companies will have to "mark to market" their troubled mortgage investments, resulting in more profit warnings. If the stock market can't hold its gains, then leveraged investors may cry havoc and continue dumping securities to free up money. "I think rallies right now should be sold and that this thing is not over yet," says Steve Sachs, director of trading at Rydex Investments. Under the Radar Federal bank and thrift regulators have been careful not to offer any window into their regulatory machinations during the past two weeks as floundering housing and credit markets have dried up liquidity and sent financial stocks reeling. Many of the market pressures began as Congress left Washington for its August recess. Public appearances by bank regulators immediately halted. This could change as soon as next week, however, as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of Thrift Supervision have scheduled unrelated press conferences. At these appearances, senior officials will likely face questions about the safety and soundness of the industry. WSJ