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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimbaBear who wrote (67771)	8/18/2007 6:13:57 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 116555

Everyone's talked about it. Gary Kaltbaum was railing about it on his radio show, clearly the Fed meeting was known to some big market participants, who leveraged up on the financials in indexes. I'd love to see the phone log at Paulson's office on Thursday afternoon. I'm sure a lotta bears got taken to the Woodshed on that one, I feel damn lucky I dumped my index funds and poots earlier.... Link to Kaltbaum 08/17: archives.warpradio.com

To: TimbaBear who wrote (67771)	8/18/2007 6:15:40 PM
From: Bucky Katt	Respond to of 116555

All the brokers/banks/indexes moved up hard going into the close Thursday, it was a pattern that was hard to miss, as I trade the indexes and am always looking for tells. They started hitting the index futures up at noon, then at 1:00, both at the top of the hour, and then they waited till about 2:33 (all central time) and hit them up again. It was great trading, but obviously somebody was behind the curtains, and as they say in Chicago, Da fix was in... The time line as I saw it and had time to post> Message 23800334 They kicked in huge long right at 12 noon central time, now see how long it holds. Message 23800639 They (fed, ppt whatever) hit the index futures hard again at the top of the hour. Shazam, a new trading pattern!!!! Message 23801145 The ppt/fed lift started a few minutes ago This was interesting> Message 23801095 Shares of E-Trade slumped 22% Thursday afternoon as investors grew increasingly wary of the company's mortgage holdings and there was pressure on the stock from heavy negative sentiment in the options market. Earlier this week, Citigroup analysts said, "We view the lack of any new meaningful disclosures around the composition and quality of the $28 billion mortgage portfolio as concerning." The analysts estimated that net unrealized losses grew to an all-time high of $335 million at E-Trade. It added that it would be difficult for E-Trade to refinance the portfolio without taking a meaningful earnings charge. They got it back over $13 from under $10, so some kind of bailout is happening. Manipulation to the max in the attempt to keep the system from collapse? Epilogue for Thursday> Message 23802669 The takeaway is we sensed that somehow they would work to get the indexes righted during the day, and they did, so props to us for reading the tea leaves, as it were. Message 23798312 Japan down 3.5% Korea down >7%... Looks like they spread/sold that rotten subprime paper everywhere, and this points up just how interrelated (like dominoes) the banking systems are, and how they walk on a razor edge, and are similar to standing dominoes, lined up and at risk of falling like, well, dominoes. But I figure the powers that be won't let that happen. I expect they are planning some major interventions soon, to answer the bleating cries of the likes of shills such as Jimmy Crater & Kudlow, to right this ship and bail out the dumb asses, yet again. Fantastic trading, but don't marry anything. Of course, tomorrow is another day, and so is next Monday, Tuesday,,,... Then the Friday FED news> Message 23803090 ALERT ~~ FED bailout!!!!

To: TimbaBear who wrote (67771)	8/18/2007 6:37:30 PM
From: Paul Kern	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Is it just me or does the odd coincidence that on Thursday the market, in the last few hours, recovers from being down more than 300+ points, and then the Fed making a big move on Friday morning smack of insider knowledge to anyone else? I haven't heard anyone talking about it, but it surely does smell fishy to me. Message 23803036 Goldman Sachs Says Fed Will Cut Rate to 4.5 Percent in 2007 By Brian Swint Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve will cut the overnight target interest rate to 4.5 percent from the current 5.25 percent this year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists forecast in a research note today. The Fed will reduce the rate by at least 0.25 point on or before policy makers meet on Sept. 18, according to the note. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: August 17, 2007 07:36 EDT