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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pogohere who wrote (67794)8/19/2007 4:45:25 PM
From: ballsschweaty  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
<If real cash doesn't show up shortly in the hands of consumers, substitute forms, i.e., precious metals, will have their day in the sun, albeit only for a season, just as they did in the 1930s.>

That's a huge leap in logic for me. If real cash doesn't show up in the hands of consumers, loan defaults will skyrocket, retail sales will dry up and unemployment will increase dramatically. I fail to see the connection between these impacts and a sudden increase in demand for precious metals.

I suppose anything is possible and if enough people believe like you, then precious metals may do very well. I prefer to short the retailers and other stocks rather than go long precious metals at this point. The precious metals charts look just like other risk assets and I see no reason to believe that is about to change anytime soon.