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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (6077)	8/19/2007 8:30:22 PM
From: ecrire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50538

Don't mean to quibble but far from being down 5%, the NIKKEI seems to be UP 240.

To: jim_p who wrote (6077)	8/19/2007 8:41:25 PM
From: ecrire	Respond to of 50538

Appreciate the articulate way in which you present your case.I just think that a lot of the problems have already been discounted .Personally, I think the time is very near that certain home builders stocks should be accumulated, put away and forgotten for a year or two. Most have lost 50% of their recent values and, in time, will recover; downside risk limited.

To: jim_p who wrote (6077)	8/20/2007 2:01:31 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50538

1. Bull markets always end with an event, and I believe the sub-slime meltdown/credit crunch was the event that ended this bull market. When does a bull market end? When it does you'll never be able to hang an "event". 2. I don't believe you can unwind 7 years of increased leverage in a matter of weeks. FED could easily end it with Permanent, and probably will. Many of the hedge funds are so large that it would be impossible to liquidate them in a short time period. If hedge funds are properly hedged, they have no fear from the current environment. If not, they can adjust without much effort or loss. 3. We haven't even seen the downgrades from the rating agencies which is right around the corner and will trigger a new wave of selling. The market discounts the past? True, it does, but in this case , not so true. Rating agencies like Fitch or S&P have been downgrading for weeks, months. 4. The hedge funds will be forced to use lower valuations then what they initially come out with at the end of the quarter once the pricing is reviewed by independent third parties. You can bet there is going to be a lot of scrutiny on the valuations this quarter. This process will take place over a period of months. The sky is blue. 5. If the market direction has changed, as I believe it has, we aren't even close to a bottom. Tautology. You haven't shown that the market has changed direction. You haven't because it is impossible to do so. Bottoms are formed when investors start to puke up their shares at any price and swear they never want to see another common stock as long as they live (of course they always have short memories and start to buy again the next time we're near a top). Institutional fund managers that I know have been doing this. The public isn't much involved these days or years in the stock market. It is well known, and has been, that the public is all in re. In any event it does not matter how negative it will get since sentiment always follows price. Always. No exceptions. Thus, what good does it do to assess sentiment?