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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (86181)	8/20/2007 3:03:44 PM
From: Snowshoe	Respond to of 306849

>>i'm curious, when you say it took several years do you mean several years off the PEAK or several years after the bottoming out?<< The peak of the Alaska real estate boom was probably summer 1985. As best I recall, the Saudis glutted the oil market in fall 1985, and things went downhill really fast. In early 1986 an accountant told me matter-of-factly that most of the state's banks and S&Ls would go bust, and he was eventually proven correct. The resulting bust bottomed in spring 1989 with the Exxon Valdez oil spill, when Exxon flooded the state with billions in clean-up money. So it was about 4 years from peak to trough. By coincidence I nailed the bottom exactly, and moved into my foreclosed property on the day of the big spill. I think the vulture capitalists were most active around the bottom of the bust, which came roughly 4 years after the peak. They were experienced folks from out of state, who knew how to drive ruthless bargains. In addition to the condos, they also bought up lots of commercial property like defunct strip malls. High quality residential property in choice locations dropped around 30%-35% from peak to bottom, and low quality in poor locations was off 75%-80%. I had a friend who bought a 1-bedroom condo to use as an office and investment. It was marked down from $50K to $20K. Depressions are wonderful if you have a reliable income!