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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6107)	8/20/2007 7:59:06 PM
From: Roads End	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50541

There might be mountains of cash on the sidelines but it is in rummy MM accounts holding trash subprime, alt A, etc. When the demand comes will the cash be there?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6107)	8/20/2007 8:53:30 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 50541

Margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange was at a record $378 billion as of June, up 36 percent from the previous peak in 2000 of $278 billion, according to Schaeffer's data. In 2000 the NYSE was around 6000. Relative to its recent peak where that margin data arose, that's (10 - 6)/6 = 67%. So according to your data margin debt is growing more slowly than price, way more slowly than in just about all bull markets in history. Further, as long as margin debt continues to expand, margin debt tells you nothing. Expansion is bullish. Indeed, it takes a year of contraction before it tells you something, and during that year, the contraction is always caused by rising interest rates. If you haven't gotten the message from rising rates by the time margin debt tells you something, you have no biz in this biz. Also, it isn't the speculating public who's generating the lion share of that debt. Margin debt is remarkably low in public margin accounts and their free cash easily covers it. Without exception these factors tell you that the public, the public which was heavily playing in the late '90, ain't here now. Until they arrive you won't have a bull market top.