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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (341636)	8/22/2007 11:15:54 AM
From: stan_hughes	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

If I hear one more analyst come out and try to tell TV Nation that "there's nothing to worry about because so far it doesn't look like the liquidity crunch has affected the real economy", I think I'm gonna scream. Talk about looking backwards to see where the bus might be that's going to hit you from the front end. In a few more weeks the mantra will be slightly altered to "it now appears that the liquidity crunch may be affecting the real economy", followed by "today's data confirm that the liquidity crunch has affected the real economy", and so on, until we get to the pronouncement that "the crisis began with the August stock market sell-off that foreshadowed a dramatic contraction in liquidity due to derivative unwinds and the newfound and seemingly universal aversion for risk". I can't think of anything I'd rather do than speculate long in copper at $3.30/pound on margin right at the beginning of a credit contraction and global slowdown -- how about you? The next 3-6-12 months is going to be the litmus test for whether the bulk of the last 5 year's worth of rising commodity prices was legit or just the result of easy money and leveraging -- IMO the smart money isn't going to wait until the pre-Olympic season (too obvious) and has already started a 7th-inning exit to beat the rush