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To: stan_hughes who wrote (341642)	8/22/2007 1:30:59 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 436258

no. i think oil prices have been higher than the underlying market for two main reasons: speculation and bottlenecks in the supply chain. same for NG, and ng has come down quite a bit from the highs last time i looked, if for no other reason than reduced bottlenecks vis a via reduced demand from a seasonal basis. even with peak oil, you have ups and downs in the cycle,particularly given the above. the cycle didn't die with peak oil no matter what that moron in houston says. remove the speculation component... i'd give a guess you remove at least 10 if not 20% off the top. remove the bottleneck component, you at least avoid some of the sudden spikes in spot for a more even distribution. remove demand, implies demand will be removed world wide from a recessionary standpoint. would that rally the dollar? I don't think so, not while everyone is reflating to beat the band at the same time, nor on a relative basis if the fed reflates the most. we'll see in six months time, or perhaps sooner, since things are speeding along at a quite rapid pace. after all the crisis is still only a month old, more or less. there's an incredible shortage of liquidity out there for one thing and far from alleviated it seems to me. secondly, we've come no where close to marking to market the first trillion of the home owner paper with another trillion to follow upon resets through Q2 of 2008. not yet at all factored are the commercial lines as well. or the insurances, or the balance sheets using mark to model for further leveraging within the pyramid. we are 60 seconds into a 24 hour process. along the way there will be continued write downs of the aaa's, aa's, a's and b's. coinciding with consumer paper in the auto, and all other zero down categories. nah... the us dollar ain't going anywhere fast, but down if the fed acts as projected by folks like der chief. patience.