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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (341645)8/22/2007 12:56:44 PM
From: stan_hughes  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Not to reduce this to a geopolitical discussion, but I recently read that based upon Iran's current structural expenditures, if the POO could be engineered down near $40, they would be financially unable to wage war and also have their hands quite full with problems at home -- if I can find a link I'll post it.

So keeping in mind the various agendas around the globe at the moment, if I were a western ME strategist worried about Iran, $40 crude would seem to solve a lot of my short-term problems, regardless of whether I'm pulling out or whether I'm staying. Hard to imagine China getting upset about a lower POO either -- they would save a fortune and might be up for a mutually beneficial game of tit-for-tat with the US despite all the public sabre rattling.

It's just when everybody is quite sure that something can't happen that it usually does