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Strategies & Market Trends : Portfolio Construction -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (560)	8/22/2007 2:46:45 PM
From: Paul Chiu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1964

I think the FED will come in Friday to make a cut in the FED funds rate, consistent with his $38 billion repo 2 weeks ago and the cut in the discount rate last Friday. If you're right here, Keith, I better be buying hong kong and korean ETF's before the day's is through. Right now, I am more afraid that the FED does something before 9/17 as I think the "lust and wish" of traders for an immediate or next FOMC FED FED Fund reduction is more powerful for the markets than the actual move itself. What if the cut of 50bp in the Fed Funds does nothing after the initial launch? Frankly, I am still stubborn with my Chinese positions, all blue-chip oil, insurance, and banking Chinese stocks. If the FED play this wave incorrectly, I may have to sell well before Peking 2008, which I do not want. BTW, where your cyclicals have kicked ass for you over the last 2-3 years, my international lean (on weak Dollar) of 26% with a beta of 1.4 have helped me survived the horrible underperformance of the US large caps. aapl had been a <4% play for me since the late 90's, but that I ramped up just in time since 2005 Still, 1 stock will never make you big money over years. THAT requires correct portfolio asset allocation. Case in point is my GOOG position, which is enormous and I got a lot in the IPO even. Wealth was enhanced by my goog, but wealth was created by the years in international and especially asia..... Paul

To: Keith Feral who wrote (560)	8/27/2007 9:42:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1964

<<I think the FED will come in Friday to make a cut in the FED funds rate, consistent with his $38 billion REPO 2 weeks ago and the cut in the discount rate last Friday.>> I still hear nonsense about how "the FED has flooded the economy with money to bail out Wall Street." This is total garbage. The clear picture from the Repo Balance is that the Fed is attempting to drive their competitors out of business -- just as they did in the Great Depression. The Great Depression was caused by the Fed in order to eliminate banks which weren't members of their club. They succeeded then and they are going to succeed now. The only question is just how far they want to push the economy underwater. As soon as their competition in the banking industry is destroyed, they will reverse course and flood the market with money. Until then, deflation appears to be the Fed's game plan.