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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6156)8/23/2007 7:10:52 AM
From: bearjones  Respond to of 50084
 
Slider, please provide a refresher on why the unwinding of the yen carytrade is bad for gold, ie - how does that all work?



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6156)8/23/2007 7:30:00 AM
From: Bwe  Respond to of 50084
 
SOTB,

I'm not sure if you or others are aware of the NYSEBP? I'm posting the following links for those interested in learning more about one of the very best measures of market risk out there.

NYSE Bullish Percent Primer
Kevin Depew Jun 04, 2003 2:58 pm
minyanville.com

Many of the indicators I look at are based on the Bullish Percent concept, so I'm going to go through exactly what this concept is and how it might be used.
The Bullish Percent concept was actually created by a guy named Earnest Staby in the 1940s. One of the criticisms often leveled against technical analysis is that charts, in a very general sense, look best at the top and worst at the bottom. Obviously, it would be far more valuable if charts looked their worst at the top and their best at the bottom.

The Bullish Percent concept was created to help solve this problem. It was actually A.W. Cohen who took Staby’s insights and created what is called the New York Stock Exchange Bullish Percent in the mid 1950s. Bullish Percent charts are simply charts that measure the percent of “something” doing “something.” As point and figure chartists we plot these charts in Xs and Os. We use Xs to display when demand is in control, Os to display when supply is in control........

NYSE Bullish Percent Primer, Part Two
Kevin Depew Jun 05, 2003 7:42 am
minyanville.com

Just as important as it is to understand what the NYSE Bullish Percent tells us, it's important to understand what the NYSE Bullish Percent does not tell us. It is not a strict timing trigger. The bullish percent concept has often been criticized as a lagging concept, but I think that criticism misunderstands the value of what bullish percent indicators can tell you.

This indicator is not a measure of what the Dow Jones or the S&P 500 is going to do, because these indices measure just a handful of stocks. The S&P 500 is cap-weighted and the Dow is price-weighted. In other words, much of their movement is controlled by a relatively few number of stocks. The NYSE Bullish Percent is a simple voting mechanism constructed the way most people build their portfolios: one stock -- one vote. Do you cap-weight your portfolio? Because this indicator oscillates between 0% and 100%, it is a measure of risk in the marketplace.

In addition to charting the percent of stocks on the NYSE on point and figure buy signals, we also construct Bullish Percent charts for the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100, the stocks in the optionable universe, and stocks trading above their 10-week moving average just to name a few. The rules are the same for each Bullish Percent chart. Above 70% is high-risk, below 30% low-risk.

Risk indicators are as important as timing triggers. The value of the Bullish Percent concept is that it always gives you a clear picture of current risk in the marketplace. Suppose you are using a combination of MACD, stochastics, and other timing triggers to work your trades. The Bullish Percent concept used in conjunction with your timing triggers can tell you when you’re betting dollars to win twenties, or when you’re betting dollars to win nickels.........



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6156)8/23/2007 4:56:32 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50084
 
Slider, no offense but do you still think we're off to the races? This rally has come as far as the last rally, and is now starting to reverse. There's plenty of bad news, and good news has been quickly dismissed, so where's the impetus to move it higher? I think we need to retest the lows first.

Fun-da-Mental