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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (27896)	8/25/2007 4:52:02 PM
From: a128	Respond to of 78753

Noticed some insider buying in AEO. 22-Aug-07 JESSELSON MICHAEL G Director 16,800 Indirect Purchase at $23.48 - $23.54 per share. $395,000 22-Aug-07 SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L Officer 29,500 Indirect Purchase at $22.99 - $23 per share. $678,000 There may be more. This is all that shows up on yahoo right this moment. Stock seems expensive to me based on price/book and price/sales so I will probably not play. Enterprise Value/EBITDA is reasonable...(ttm)3: 6.721

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (27896)	8/31/2007 5:10:24 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

CHS. I really like Bloomberg's Pimm Fox's shows. He interviews some interesting and articulate stock analysts. Not that I know if they're right about their selections though. Good discussion, imo, yesterday on his show about women's retailers. As I understand it there are about three aspects that are hurting the sector. First, one of the retail chains is having substantial markdowns, and that is putting pressure on the others' margins as they too are pressured. Secondly, the stocks mentioned here in this subsector are the one's that have adult females as customers. At this time, in a general sense, these women are spending their clothing monies not on themselves, but on their kids during this back-to-school time. Thirdly, mall traffic is generally down, so there's more competition for the customers who are shopping. (All this according to the analyst.) These companies might do better in time, as merchandise and fashions change and customers begin returning. It's about having styles and merchandise that people want. It looks to me like these particular chains are all beat down. I'm not interested in buying now (maybe I should be), but if I were, I'd buy a package---CHS, TLB, and CWTR. finance.yahoo.com -------- As far as teen retailers, the analyst liked ANF and also URBN. And this analyst also liked TGT for its reasonably-priced and various popular clothing lines. finance.yahoo.com ------------ This is the second analyst on the show whose favorite chains are the upscale ones. This analyst likes TIF (Oops, should have added, but didn't, to my stub position when stock recently dropped), SKS, and JWN. JWN (Nordstrom) was also the favorite of the previous retail analyst Mr. Pimm interviewed. I've now looked a little closer, and imo, JWN is not really a value play. However, given that the rich are getting richer, that Nordstrom continues to expand, and that my calculated fair-value p/e is about 16--- with the stock at a forward p/e of 14, I'm willing to step up for a few shares. I bought a little today for an exploratory start. finance.yahoo.com ----------------- The analyst also mentioned a couple of stocks my market research team has come across too. H&R is privately held. Zumiez, suggested by the analyst, was a strong recommendation from my team (teenage family members). My 15-yr old nephew recently repeated his suggestion to me to buy Zumiez; he also mentioned again his favorite pick of Nvidia, a semiconductor supplier to the consumer electronics products he likes. I patiently explained to him the stocks were too expensive. Haha. Wrong and wrong. (i.e. wrong if you want to make money. Maybe, Maybe right if you just want to be pedantical. ((Making money is better.))) These stocks have turned out to be among the few stocks which continue to hit new highs. finance.yahoo.com I hate when this happens. -g-. Sheesh. Missed 'em. As well, these kids must look on me as a total incompetent about stocks and a geezer who knows nothing about anything that's au courant: stock-picking seems so effortless and obvious to them, it seems.