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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (240023)	8/28/2007 12:30:49 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Executive Summary World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. According to the IEA, the current peak production of 86.13 mbd occurred on July 2006 and only one year later, June 2007 total liquids production fell to an unexpectedly low 84.28 mbd. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a 1%/yr decline rate to 2009, followed by a 4%/yr decline rate to 2012. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6). World C&C year on year production changes to April 2007 and May 2007 (Figs 7,8) show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia and significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia has probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly. Key producer Saudi Arabia retains its 2005 C&C peak (Fig 10), which is the same as the peak year for world C&C (Fig 2). Saudi Arabia C&C production has now dropped to 8.6 mbd which is 1 mbd less than its peak in 2005. It is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005 (Figs 9,10). World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due to new OPEC projects (Fig 11). World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to double by 2012 (Fig 12). World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012 (Fig 13). theoildrum.com ==== Since you worked for BP, you should know that when a field is around 50% depleted, the rate of extraction falls off. It's physics, and no matter how much money you throw at physics, you can't bribe the laws. So even if you increase the number of wells substantially, the output from that field keeps dropping. Physics of extraction...few graphics at link... europe.theoildrum.com == Most recent crisis list I have...like it or not, it is here. Message 23679916 And a few headlines from today... South Korea: Surging Oil Prices Hit Pilot Training Skyrocketing oil prices are compromising the Air Force's combat capability by reducing flight training hours for pilots, a state-funded defense think tank said Monday. === Gas Shortage in North Dakota A study by Triple-A says Gas Prices in North Dakota are the highest of the lower 48 states, averaging $3.03 a gallon. The situation may get worse before it gets better. Officials say a supply shortage in the midwest is THE reason for high prices. In fact, gas is in such short supply Governor Hoeven requested a waiver today from the EPA to get gas out of Canada. The shortage has left area stations scrambling for fuel. === July oil output drops at Mexico's Cantarell field (B4 Dean) Crude oil output dropped in July at Mexico's aging Cantarell offshore field, according to data published on the energy ministry's Web site on Monday. Cantarell, closely watched by the oil industry after sharp dips in output in recent months, produced an average of 1.526 million barrels per day versus 1.570 million bpd in June. The figure meant Cantarell accounted for just 48.2 per cent of Mexico's overall crude oil output last month, continuing a steady decline over the past year at the field, which once produced around 60 per cent of the country's oil. === Burundi hit by fuel shortage A FUEL shortage in Burundi has led to rationing of fuel and doubling of prices. The shortage follows an order by the Burundi general prosecutor, Elysée Ndaye, for the impounding of trucks and fuel tankers belonging to Interpetrol Company and freezing of all the company’s bank accounts in Burundi. The company supplies more than 50% of fuel in Burundi. == Just keep telling yourself it isn't happening until '37.