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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (85684)	8/29/2007 10:00:10 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

CalculatedRisk, Thanks for posting the Goldman housing forecast. I assume that they are saying 7% y-o-y declines in end-of-year prices for both 2007 and 2008 based upon the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Actually, from what I have calculated (and assuming I calculated correctly: 187.35-Year-end 2006 x .93 x .93 = 162.04) that would only bring the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index approximately back to a level seen in Q4 2004 (163.06). IMHO hardly a dent, especially given the rise from 98.29 at year-end 1999. To put it mildly I am not a huge fan of the methodology employed in the Case-Shiller data for a variety of reasons. However, it appears that it is one of the few national housing indices extant, and seems to be gaining a following in the press. SSB