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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (87887)	9/1/2007 11:50:20 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 306849

"If people have a negative outlook, it's contagious and it happens really fast," Frankl said, recalling the downturn in the late 1980s and early 1990s. "People start laying off, they pull out of contracts, banks are not making loans, companies stop their investments and it can happen very quickly." Residential side is now much worse than it ever was during the RTC days in some of the hardest hit markets in the sunbelt. It seems worse now in parts of Florida than even in Houston and the oil patch 20 years ago. The big question is if and when gateway cities NYC, San Francisco ect..get hit hard and what happens on the commercial side nationwide going forward. I can't imagine the drops in commercial like last time (60-70%) as we aren't as overbuilt, however valuations are stretched way beyond last time with cap rates at 3-5% not sustainable except in a strong economy, very low interest rate environment..

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (87887)	9/3/2007 7:27:04 AM
From: Tradelite	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

<<Realty agents will lose jobs>> They don't lose jobs. They didn't have "jobs". They were running their own businesses, even if working under the company name of a brokerage firm as an independent contractor. I was a so-called "realty agent" for many years. One day, I voluntarily stopped doing anything to actively earn money in that business, but I'm still a licensed real estate broker. Just passed my continuing education course and will renew broker license for another two years next March. Am I employed or unemployed???? Neither one, under the government's definition. Can I make money as a "realty agent" whenever an opportunity or the desire arises? Yes. How will the government count my employment? Hint: only the IRS cares at tax time, when I have income to report. The government job-counters at BLS will never know one way or another.