Hillary Clinton's Obstacles Include Netroots
By Barry Casselman, Sept 2 2007
The punditocracy and many Beltway political insiders have virtually declared Senator Hillary Clinton the Democratic nominee for president for 2008. To be fair, this has not happened without some good reasons, including Mrs. Clinton's formidable fundraising, her near-100% name recognition, her access to Bill Clinton for advice, her reputation as a brutal and efficient opponent to any rival, her strong organization, and the weakness of the field against her.
Clinton's well-known political weaknesses are now being dismissed away by her advocates in the Democratic political establishment and by friendly media commentators. These include her mediocre speaking ability, her extraordinary negatives arising from her tenure as First Lady during her husband's two terms as president, her history of support of very liberal causes and policies, and her lack of appeal to political independents.
On the other hand, Clinton has shown herself to be very disciplined as a candidate, both in her race for the Senate and so far for the presidential nomination. She has deftly handled her most serious challenger to date, Senator Barack Obama, by creating a credible contrast between his political experience and hers.
But there are at least two obstacles which could stand between her and the Democratic nomination. One is the now increasingly unlikely prospect that former Vice President Al Gore would enter the contest to challenge her. Mr. Gore, considering the huge amount of recent favorable publicity he has received and his residual support in his party, could not be taken lightly by her in upcoming Democratic primaries if he entered them.
The other is the seemingly implacable opposition to her in the netroots and the left wing of her party. She did show up at the annual netrooots convention recently, but instead of pandering to their view of the war in Iraq, she stated her own more moderate view. This produced boos, but Mrs. Clinton wasn't really directing her remarks to the netroots. She was speaking to a much larger audience and using the netroots as a foil.
The point is that, from her point of view, she does not need the netroots at all. This internet phenomenon on the left wing of the American politics has only been shown to be effective so far in raising money and in providing organizational support for candidates, neither of which she needs. In their much-publicized challenge to Senator Joe Lieberman last year, the netroots were able to conjure up an opponent, Ned Lamont, who won the Democratic
primary against the incumbent, but Mr. Lamont lost decisively in the general election which returned Mr. Lieberman to the Senate as an independent with even more influence than before.
Various Democratic politicians across the country who tried to "suck up" to the netroots by joining in the fray against Mr. Lieberman came to regret it, and to have serious reservations about the real political power of the netroots (despite its persistent self-promoting claims).
Now we have the prospects of the netroots being left out of the presidential election they have been looking forward to so much. Mrs. Clinton is not one of them. They have no real political influence with her. She is polite to their faces, but skillfully uses them to her purposes which do not include their favorite issues.
Former Senator Fred Thompson, who is about to enter the race on the Republican side, has vowed to employ the conservative blogosphere as no one in his party has ever done before. (Of course, we don¹t know yet if the conservative blogs will greatly favor Mr. Thompson.) The right-leaning blogosphere is smaller than the left-leaning netroots, but it is not without some significant achievements. Just ask Dan Rather.
There has been a certain implacable quality to the Democratic Party's left wing's opposition to Mrs. Clinton. The late Molly Ivins wrote a column before her death that was first published more than a year ago in which she asserted uncompromisingly that she would not vote for Mrs. Clinton. That columns keeps re-appearing in the netroots as a macabre rallying cry. The point is that Mrs. Clinton cannot afford too many disaffections in what is considered her poliical base. Her poll negatives are historic in their dimensions for a front-runner and nominee-presumptive. That means she needs to win almost all of her base plus make gains among independent voters. If the Republicans nominate Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson, she has a serious challenge ahead, no matter what the match-up polls say now.
Nor are the netroots likely to go along willingly as mere afterthoughts in the 2008 presidential election. Their pride, their bragging rights, and their long-term impact is at stake.
Of course, they will denounce me for what I am saying here, as they have every time I have raised questions about their real political influence. No one denies they play a role, but after six years as a "novelty," it will be instructive to see if the netroots can finally take their place as a major force in American national politics. That means producing not just money and organization, but, much more importantly, producing votes on election days in November.
As for Mrs. Clinton, I don't doubt that she can overcome the obstacles to her party's nomination, barring the unforeseen. Mr. Gore, as I said, is unlikely to run against her now, and only Senator Joe Biden of Delaware, among her opponents, seems to have the experience and gravitas to match her (and his campaign does not appear to be going anywhere).
The final obstacle Mrs. Clinton faces, should she be nominated by her party, is the American voter. Fifteen months away from the election, and not knowing who the Republican nominee will be, we do not have a reasonable sense of how she would really perform in the November election. She has always been a political figure who, while clearly demonstrating intelligence and effectiveness, arouses strong negatives, and little widespread affection. If, as some are suggesting, the American people are seeking someone they can respect and like for their next president, then this last obstacle will be, by far, the greatest one for her to overcome.
Barry Casselman writes about national politics for Preludium News Service. |
