Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SwingTrader2006 who wrote (6270)	9/3/2007 11:20:27 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50747

Happy Labor Day!!! For those who still feel we're not going into a recession, lets summarize where we are today and see if we recognize any trends: 1. Housing: Backlog of homes for sale at 16 year high. Home prices fell nationwide by 3.2% in June over June 2006 Foreclosures up 93% in July over July 2006 JP Morgan now forecasting home prices to fall by 7.5-15% by end of 08. Goldman now forecasting home price to fall by 15-30% by end of 08 50% of the mortgages taken out in 06 are now not available. Only 33% of the people who bought homes in 05 and 06 would qualify for a mortgage today. 2. Impact on economy so far: Credit card defaults are now rising as borrowers increase credit card debt to try to maintain their past standard of living. Car sales down 12% in July to 9 year low. HD sales down 5.2% in Q2 and Sears sales down 4.3% in Q2 and this is before the credit crunch even started. Pleasure boat sales down 6% in 06 and expected to be down 10% in 07. 3. Credit crunch: Asset backed CP down $59.4B last week and down $188.4B in the last three weeks to $985B. 4. Inflation: Inflation in China now at a 10 year high of 5.6% Food inflation continues strong with wheat prices hitting an all time high last week and now up over 100% in the last year with inventories at a 26 year low. Just a few items to think about on this holiday Jim