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To: stan_hughes who wrote (342565)	9/3/2007 4:55:33 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

outstanding!!! really outstanding!!!!

To: stan_hughes who wrote (342565)	9/3/2007 5:35:37 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Respond to of 436258

The New York boyz tipped their hand in WSJ declaring 2008 bonuses will be " much tougher." While they are notoriously adept at applying lipstick to pigs they are also genuinely pragmatic, probably even truthful, regarding their own financial welfare. Nice read Stan, you tied up a lot of loose ends. Jim

To: stan_hughes who wrote (342565)	9/3/2007 6:26:45 PM
From: NucTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Stan, in general I agree with what you say about real estate, but look at pages 19 and 20 of the following report: ofheo.gov We've looked to buy for a year in NC. The house we chose we first saw in June 2007. Builder named a price 10.9% lower than his Parade of Homes opening in October 2006; and 8% lower than his reduced price in Jan 2007. I made a lower offer. He passed. Came back in mid August. Community was nearly built out; 3 homes available in June had sold, 2 others were under contract. I offered him the price he named in June and he accepted. Meanwhile, back at the ranch: The real estate market here in San Antonio is still relatively good. Interviewed 3 realtors, and they all said selling here shouldn't be a problem, acknowledging we were in a "transitional market". Looking at comps in my specific neighborhood: 6 homes have sold since Jan 2007. One stories moved at, respectively, 46 days, 44 days, 42 days, 8 days, 15 days, and (most recently) 3 days, at or near full asking price. 2 stories were slower 191 and 126 days, respectively. So there's definitely been some softening, but not a real disaster yet. Of course, as Curly said in City Slickers: "Day's not over yet..." LOL!

To: stan_hughes who wrote (342565)	9/3/2007 7:16:38 PM
From: Cactus Jack	Respond to of 436258

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Much appreciated food for thought. jpg

To: stan_hughes who wrote (342565)	9/3/2007 8:07:32 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 436258

This recon mission description is good on SD real estate ... sounds like Shanghai, but without the prospects, promising either mucho bargains or plenty of kind-hearted monetary inflation, depending on political inclination and electoral forbearance. Between Stupefying Stagflation ala Zimbabwe and Devastating Depression akin to Argentina, I hope the electorates choose wisely. Either way, the right sort of second abode still ought to drop 80% relative to something else, though not necessarily cash - figure 50% nominal price decline (100 to 50), paired with 50% currency devaluation (50 to 25), and 20% 'hard buy' bargaining (25 to 20), is how we can get THERE from HERE. Should anyone here figure out what that something else is, do tell when known or even suspect. The two hugely enormous differences (as noticeable as a putrid whale sandwich in the cat poo box in the middle of the foyer) between the current real estate soon-to-be debacle and past episodes is that, (i) via refinancing, whole neighborhood participated, as opposed to simply the last marginal purchaser, and the toxin is all over the financial arena, in every pension nook and all other hedge fund cranny, all the way to Europe and Asia; and (ii) via employment, a whole two generations of workers have come to rely on the real estate industry's largess, on Main Street and on Wall Street. Small distinction to some, but gad, we have never been here before, and the punishment promises to be severe, or ought to, biblically speaking, fire and brimstone, crimson coloured moon, etc, so on and so forth, ad infinitum, ad nauseam, and then once again, twice more. You got the message. I have eyes on Hawaii, along with 100 mil Japanese and 1 billion Chinese (have not seen a lot of Indians in Hawaii - perhaps the weather is not to their liking), and so perhaps Hawaii will prove robust this time around. This penthouse loopnet.com was gotten out of bank auction in 1999 at USD 900k and was packaged with a piece of residential building lot in beautiful Kailua! So, wait, be patient, there is no such thing as the "last and final opportunity" - this real estate monster has much blood to drain out yet.

To: stan_hughes who wrote (342565)	9/3/2007 10:08:19 PM
From: Amots	Respond to of 436258

Stan. Great post ! I moved to SD in 2000 and bought my house here, it double it's value (on paper) in 3 years. 2 years ago, when my friends told me to take Home equity loan and use it to invest in RE, I told a better deal would be to use the money to short home builders and mortgage lenders.... I wished I had follow my advice. :o(