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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (21984)	9/4/2007 5:39:01 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 218149

ElM, way back in the day, I think it was the Shah of Iran who was concerned what the Americans would think about the price of oil going up. He was assured that that was okay by them. Exxon, BP, Shell, and others such as nuclear reactor owners do VERY well when the price of oil is high and competition from Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq is off the market. When one is selling things, what competitors are doing is the major threat [other than what governments might confiscate from you]. If competitors go away, die, go broke or something, then it is NOT bad news. Though some hypocrites say they welcome competition. The most laughable case I can think of was Apple welcoming IBM to personal computers back in the day, when IBM brought out their PC promoted by a Charlie Chaplin figure. Way back in my BP Oil days in Antwerp, in about 1987 or 1988, a colleague and I were conducting our usual geopolitical discussions. We concluded that about the best thing for oil profits would be "a bullet through the middle east". That was the exact words used by me to describe what would make sense. I hasten to add that our jobs had nothing whatsoever to do with such strategies which might or might not be conducted with politicians by the uppermost House of Lords contacts in the oil industry. We just liked to think about things. Bingo! Two years later it was all on in Iraq and Kuwait. A major competitor was off the market. Now, Iran is threatening this that and the other - Death to Israel, Death to America, Islamic Jihad to the world. If Iranian oil and gas are off the market, people who are competing with them will not be too worried. If oil goes to $150 a barrel, it won't hurt BP, Shell, Exxon, nuclear reactor industry, coal mining, coal power stations, North Sea and North Slope oil, Russian oil and gas exports, and even the Greenies will be happy to see oil expensive and everyone buying micro hybrid cars instead of dirty great SUVs. Iran doesn't have much in the way of a threat to carry out. "Go on, cut off the Straits of Hormuz, I dare you", will be ringing in their ears. The USA is not averse to live fire real-time training in such situations and Iran will find itself in an unpleasant situation. It might be fun taking hostages and providing IEDs to blow up Americans in Iraq, but that must be quite annoying to American soldiers. Iran doesn't have much leverage at all. If the Straits of Hormuz remained permanently closed, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Prices would rise, people would cut down on usage of energy and other hydrocarbon based things. No problems. Russia's cash flow and leverage would rise. Mqurice