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To: TH who wrote (48860)	9/11/2007 9:03:14 AM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 78421

Well done, TH. I'm so impressed that I sure wouldn't presume to debate with you on public forum. Sufficient to say that the first recommendation of your posting was mine, even though your strategies and confidences are so different to my own. My PF would have been up 90% this year too.... if I hadn't been so unlucky in my selections. lol ! That's only half in jest as I have read that in judging investment management it is so difficult to distinguish between luck and pure skill. And I have read cogent argument that the average investment manager cannot beat the market except by luck, because they ARE the market. But your posts cause me to doubt what I have read in those academic books.

To: TH who wrote (48860)	9/11/2007 11:25:36 AM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 78421

>>I keep an excessive amount of free cash available when I short Just talking ! Re Shorting (from the optimists' perspective); Shorting stock is a bet that cash will outperform a stock. What cash will outperform ? Not the cash that you obtained from the short sale, but rather the amount of cash that you devote to the short. That includes the "excessive amount of free cash". The return on the short is reduced accordingly. Therein lies an essential difference between a long and a short. When the market moves against a long, it becomes an less significant portion of the PF. When the market moves against a short it becomes an ever more significant part of the PF. What do you do when the "excessive free cash" is so consumed ? Marcos and I, (well perhaps Marcos), believe that cash is in a "long term bear market" that currently is experiencing a bear market rally (the $ONE of my charts). Such is the language of unrealistic optimists. However it sure makes buying on margin (shorting $one) preferable to betting on cash by shorting stock.... especially when, like me, you have little confidence in selecting stocks, either winners or losers.