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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6390)	9/13/2007 9:00:52 AM
From: chainik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50410

OT OT OT Slider, you remind me of Feodor Mikhailovich Dostoevskiy: he used to gamble, lost a lot, and some point - with his wife standing behind his back - was forced to write a novel to be published in a weekly magazine. To keep it intriguing (it was a crime story), each chapter had to end with something like: "Even in my wildest dreams I could not imagine the terrible events...Lot's of fear, lots of questions... and very few answers..." Dostoevsky hated his job...

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6390)	9/13/2007 6:19:22 PM
From: wsw1	Respond to of 50410

here's my lame attempt at decoding the "LIE".... bears worst nightmare = the us stock market continues to rally on to new highs us stock market continued rally = the "LIE" and of course, the us stock market depends on a continued rally.... the "LIE" is being perputuated by purported moves of extremely wealthy individuals into certain sectors/stocks of the market...as if this is positive reinforcement that the "worst is over" if these apparently smart, savvy billionaires are entering (have entered) big market positions... so, assuming above "LIE" holds all the answers to making signficant money over the next few months, then i will need to anticipate (or to have anticipated) where the markets will be even further out than a few months... is all this "billionaire after billionaire buying the abyss" talk just the pump before the dump? is it to suck more retail or overseas investors into the us markets just before the "real" bottom gives way? i really don't know what these billionaries know, or just maybe i'd be one myself...whatever the do know, they sure are making the public aware of what they're doing...perhaps therein lies the real "truth"?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6390)	9/13/2007 10:47:58 PM
From: TH	Respond to of 50410

Slider, Ok, this goldfish will swim to the surface of the bowl on sunday night, but there better damn well be some flakes of food waiting for me <g> The lie? There is only one? I don't know what <the lie> is. I have a working model that they are going to let the dollar decline. They are choosing this to the alternatives, which are possibly much more unattractive. BTW, you are still long miners/POG correct? Or have you followed the paradigm clearly identified with your HUI chart and sold this <top>? I'm long miners and POG and holding. GT TH

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6390)	9/14/2007 12:31:23 AM
From: bluezuu	Respond to of 50410

From the street.com. Roubini expecting weakening dollar and gold prices falling over time. [video] us.rd.yahoo.com*http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/strategysession/10379412.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6390)	9/14/2007 12:34:19 AM
From: Now Shes Blonde	Respond to of 50410

Bad news out there ~ isn't that seen at bottoms? Need good news/times for a top, no?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6390)	9/14/2007 7:20:55 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50410

Not sure about the LIE, but this is the best article I've read to date on the TRUTH about where we are today in the current credit cycle and how bad it might get: It's long, but worth the time to read it several times. ttps://www.paulvaneeden.com/MediaLib/Downloads/Home/Commentary/Frank%20Veneroso%20on%20the%20US%20Credit%20Crunch%20(263%20KB).pdf To: GPC and FICO From: Frank Veneroso September 5, 2007 Executive Summary 1.) The U.S has a credit crunch. Because of the recent turmoil structured finance has come to a halt. It accounted for possibly 40% of aggregate mortgage finance flows and a significant share of other finance flows in the U.S. economy. 2.) But credit crunches can come and go quickly, like in 1966 or 1980. 3.) There has been a loss of confidence in the credit markets. But losses of confidence can come and go quickly - like in 1998. Some of this has already happened. Some ? but certainly not all ? of the short term money market crisis has abated in response to central bank actions. 4.) I believe the current situation is neither a credit crunch only nor a loss of confidence only. I believe it is an old fashioned credit revulsion. 5.) Credit revulsions are a response to real credit losses resulting from real failures of borrowers to pay. Most of the credit revulsions of the pre war period and the credit revulsion of 1989 ? 1992 took a considerable time to repair. In some cases they set the stage for deep economic contractions and a compounding of the credit crisis. 6.) The most famous example of this was the first banking crisis in 1930 which turned a severe recession into a great depression. The only U.S. postwar example was Credit Crunch Page 2 9/5/2007 the credit revulsion of 1989-1982. It contributed to the 1990 recession and resulted in a very sub par initial economic recovery. 7.) The most famous example of a credit revulsion in the postwar period is the Japanese banking experience from the bursting of the bubble in 1990 to the final onset of recovery in 2003. It was credit revulsion that kept Japan in stagnation and recession for more than a half decade despite a zero interest rate policy and unprecedented fiscal stimulus. 8.) If one compares the situation of 1989-1992 in all respects to the present situation there is a prospect for aggregate credit losses of almost a half trillion dollars. Though in great disarray, today?s markets have yet to discount such an outcome. 9.) The ?inflation? in the prices of structured credit instruments above the ?underlying? as a result of the structured finance process adds a second layer of potential loss which also may not be fully discounted by today?s agitated markets. 10.) If the intensification of financial distress leads to deep house price declines and perhaps a recession aggregate credit losses relative to U.S. GDP may be much higher than in 1989-1992. Such losses could be compounded by the unwinding of the ?inflation? in structured product prices above the underlying. 11.) Unlike credit crunches, credit revulsions tend to have a long tail. And they do not always respond to a large policy ease. They didn?t in 1930. They didn?t in Japan. They did in 1989-1992, but with a lag. 12.) So far it appears the U.S. financial problem is largely in the (albeit very large) non bank sector. This makes it more like the U.S. in 1989-92 and unlike 1930 in the U.S. or Japan in the late 1990?s. 13.) Let?s hope that 1989-1992 and not something more adverse is the appropriate precedent for today.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (6390)	9/14/2007 10:16:07 AM
From: CapitalistHogg™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50410

yeah i want answers---whatever happened to sugar? i personally broke even on this play and have been put to sleep by the action...