`Old economy' stocks will weather the impending U.S. financial storm because of their global reach.
Coupled the other way around. If we gte a Cold US and Europe will sneeze! We are the locomotive of the world.
Globetrotters circle the world looking for new opportunities
The IMF predicts continued heady 2008 growth rates for China (10 per cent), India (8.4 per cent) and Africa (6.5 per cent), against dreary GDP growth rates for the U.S. (1.9 per cent), Europe (2.1 per cent) and Japan (1.7 per cent).
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`Old economy' stocks will weather the impending U.S. financial storm because of their global reach
Feb 16, 2008 04:30 AM
David Olive
BUSINESS COLUMNIST
The coming year or two is shaping up as a tale of two global economies. One is characterized by slow and possibly "negative" growth in mature industrial nations, the other by continued dynamic gross domestic product growth in emerging-world economies.
In 2007, for the first time in history, China, India and Russia together accounted for more than half of global economic growth.
Te International Monetary Fund, or IMF, declared in its latest world economic forecast that China alone "is now the single most important contributor to world growth."
So how does an investor with all of his or her chips placed on a sluggish North American economy participate in a Chinese industrial revolution taking place at lightning speed?
The risks can be daunting. Investors in recently "privatized" Russian, Chinese and Indian companies usually find themselves in partnership with the Kremlin or a state entity that has retained majority control of the business.
And the lack of transparency and accounting lapses common to Western firms are even more pronounced in high-growth jurisdictions such as Dubai, Central Europe, Africa and Pakistan – which, for all its political upheaval, can boast a torrid 7 per cent annual GDP growth rate over the past several years.
There's a safe way to participate in the emergence of this parallel global economy, often overlooked by Western investors disappointed with the inconsistent performance of emerging-market mutual funds. Neither does it require the fortitude to invest directly in Third World firms and suffer buyer's remorse when the local currency abruptly implodes.
That safer approach is to focus on familiar, blue-chip North American firms that derive an unusually large share of their revenues from abroad. Think of it as both a hedge against recessionary winds blowing from the south, and a chance to profit from the world's second industrial revolution. With U.S. consumer confidence sinking, and U.S. corporate profit forecasts dropping in tandem, "the real defensive kicker is on the multinational side," Douglas Cohen, a managing director in equities at Morgan Stanley Co., said at a Forbes panel last month on stocks for weathering the North American storm.
"If you look at some of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), some of the Mid-East countries and other parts of Asia, there is very robust economic growth. It may decelerate, but it's not going to collapse."
The IMF predicts continued heady 2008 growth rates for China (10 per cent), India (8.4 per cent) and Africa (6.5 per cent), against dreary GDP growth rates for the U.S. (1.9 per cent), Europe (2.1 per cent) and Japan (1.7 per cent).
There's a bevy of companies that have been investing heavily offshore for a decade or more with only slender profits to show for it until recent years.
"All that stuff that people hated about GE over the last seven years, when the stock didn't go anywhere, they're starting to love it now," Shawn Campbell, who manages a $100 million (U.S.) fund at Chicago's Campbell Asset Management, told Reuters, explaining his bets on General Electric Co. and global farm-equipment-maker Deere & Co.
The Star's portfolio of 12 emerging-market plays is weighted to large firms with substantial, stable operations in North America, that also are helping build the modern banking, energy, transportation, computer-network and consumer-product-distribution infrastructure of emerging economies.
Each firm derives at least 30 per cent of its sales from outside North America. Each posted a rise in profits in a difficult 2007. And the shares of all but one have outperformed the S&P/TSX 300 and S&P 500 indexes so far this year, indicating that an investor "flight to quality" already is underway. Just the same, with an average price-earnings multiple of 21.3, and varying from a high of 53.3 (Bombardier Inc.) to a low of 11.4 (Whirlpool Corp.), these "old economy" stocks are still trading at reasonable prices.
Here's our Global Dozen, with yesterday's share price and the usual caveat that excellent companies like Deere have not made the list for reasons of space only.
Bank of Nova Scotia ($47.38 Canadian): The most international of Canada's Big Five banks. It operates in more than 40 countries outside Canada and the U.S. Over the past five years, BNS stock has outperformed all but Toronto Dominion Bank.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. ($149.35): It's the world's largest potash supplier, accounting for roughly 15 per cent of global production. Increasingly, its output of fertilizers and related feed products is shifting to developing-world markets where rising incomes are bringing agricultural self-sufficiency within reach.
Bombardier Inc. ($5.53): As the world's largest rail-equipment maker, it supplies streetcars to Brussels and monorails in Asia. And the former stock-market darling, still recovering from the 2001-02 recession, continues to fatten its order book for private planes, despite the U.S. downturn, thanks to the recent proliferation of Russian and Asian tycoons.
Boeing Co. ($85.18 U.S.): It has reclaimed from French archrival Airbus SA the crown of world's biggest maker of civilian airliners. Its flagship 787 Dreamliner is in hot demand with Asian and Middle Eastern airlines, while Airbus struggles to find buyers for it's A-380 superjumbo.
United Technologies Corp. ($71.53): It's the world leader in elevators (Otis) and air conditioners (Carrier), and with big stakes in aircraft engines (Pratt & Whitney) and helicopters (Sikorsky), is a low-key infrastructure supplier with outsized performance, including a stock that bested the S&P 500 by a 2-to-1 ratio over the past five years, and boosted profits by 91 per cent during that time. UTC is largely insulated from the North America consumer economy, and its rising offshore profits have compensated for the U.S. housing meltdown.
Caterpillar Inc. ($69.95): Despite its exposure to the troubled U.S. construction market, it is forecasting a rise in 2008 profits of 5 per cent to 15 per cent. Offshore orders for its heavy equipment, accounting for half its total sales, have more than compensated for softer sales growth at home.
General Electric Co. ($34.37): It now derives 50 per cent of its sales of power-station generators, locomotives, lighting supplies and medical equipment from outside its home market.
Procter & Gamble Co. ($66.30): It long ago transplanted its vaunted marketing prowess overseas, and currently is threatening to push long-established rival Unilever PLC to the margins in the booming Indian market.
Coca-Cola Co. ($58.76): The cola giant, which once insisted on peddling only Coke abroad, has learned humility in recent years, building market share in the Pacific Rim and South Asia by reformulating its soft drinks and juice products to local tastes, and acquiring dominant local beverage brands.
PepsiCo Inc. ($71.73): Same story as above, except for PepsiCo's broader portfolio that includes Frito-Lay snacks, Quaker Foods and Gatorade sports drinks, all winning favour in non-North American markets.
International Business Machines Corp. ($106.16): It generated 65 per cent of fourth-quarter 2007 sales from outside its homeland and retains its near-monopoly on mainframe computers. These are much in demand from emerging-economy governments and corporations upgrading their computer networks. Lucrative contracts to service its equipment will further entrench IBM in its newest markets.
Whirlpool Corp. ($88.49): The world's largest appliance maker (Maytag, KitchenAid, Amana, Jenn-Air), which we think of as a "household infrastructure" firm, enjoyed a 2007 payoff from its assiduous studies of how consumers in Mumbai, Singapore and Rio de Janeiro use its products. (For instance, washing machines are stored in the small kitchens of Russian and Central European households, and must be small enough to tuck under the kitchen counter.) In 2007, healthy overseas growth compensated for the weakening North American demand.
Of the prospects for Western firms seeking growth in emerging markets, money manager Cohen says: "The big bellwether multinationals like United Technologies are going to work. General Electric would be another one that I think will finally have its day here."
Adding PepsiCo to his list, Cohen said: "Those are all companies that are trading at, or below, a market multiple and have good dividend yields. So those are some of the stocks I want to own."
Are those firms "keepers"? The kind you can safely stow in your safe deposit box and forget about? Or will there come a time to dump them when the infrastructure project in the developing world is completed?
We picked infrastructure firms with substantial North American operations not only for their superior governance, but for the long-term prospects of infrastructure worldwide.
When these firms get done modernizing the rail networks of India, equipping Chinese hospitals with MRI machines, and making Doritos available in every Karachi convenience store – and perhaps even before that, if we're lucky – there's an estimated $123 billion (Canadian) "infrastructure gap" in Canada's municipalities that needs attention. And a similar gap estimated at $3.5 trillion (U.S.) in America, according to the Urban Development think tank in Washington.
At least for investors, infrastructure is becoming one of the most glamorous of four-syllable words.
David Olive is a Toronto Star business columnist. He can be reached by email at dolive@thestar.ca.
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