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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (1022)	9/17/2007 12:21:19 PM
From: stan_hughes	Respond to of 71442

Naaaah, hedging is for pussies LOL -- where's the fun in being hedged and giving up that adrenaline rush of losing a few million a day in the forex market? BTW I was kidding about the Tokyo apartment (if that wasn't already obvious). A quiet villa in the south of France, maybe. But no Tokyo. On a more serious note, I would still like to cross out of the Loonie while the crossing remains good. As previously disclosed on another thread, I continue to believe that CAD/USD parity represents a brick wall, which if achieved, would most likely be followed by reality checks to the effect that, recent reductions in trade dependence notwithstanding, the USA is still 75% of Canadian exports -- a truth which has to bite into the currency eventually. So I don't see where there's much more upside left. Firm commodity prices or not, Canada has no track record of being an island of prosperity on an otherwise slumping North American continent, and I think the potential for BRIC insulation is over-rated. If oil goes to $150 I may have to revise my analysis, but in the meantime, oil is not $150. If the globe slows down (it doesn't have to collapse, or even go negative, just slow down a bit) it might be a good idea to be very far away from commodity influences entirely for a while -- certainly at least until this credit storm distortion passes, which is causing all manner of weird inexplicable movements due to unwinds. I'm therefore thinking about taking a trading holiday in the Swissie, but first I want to see what the Fed intends on doing -- hopefully I will know more by tomorrow afternoon .