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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (69136)	9/17/2007 8:19:07 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

i am guessing that the world does not have to worry about mainland chinese banks for a while, at least not until after the coming collapse of JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo LOL :0) chortle chortle

To: RealMuLan who wrote (69136)	9/18/2007 7:02:58 AM
From: Chispas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Fiend Commentary - "The Fed Can't Turn it Off" - ........................................................... I really don't have much to say these days. I mean here we are with the Dow just 5% below its all time high, oil above $80 a barrel, gold pushing towards $750 an ounce, and a 10 year Treasury under 4.5%. In this environment Wall Street will actually be disappointed if the Fed only cuts rates by 25 basis points this week. Hopes are for a 50 basis point cut which is practically being demanded. Greenspan is on the sidelines talking about double digit interest rates in the future and a recession in the present. It seems as if the time is at hand that many Bears have been predicting for a long time. The constant bailouts with liquidity over the past decade or so has left the Fed with no room to maneuver. Politically it is impossible for the Fed to do anything but provide even more liquidity. They tried to hold out but the recent negative employment report has got Wall Street screeching for interest rate cuts. So one poor employment report and a extremely minor drop in the stock market is all it takes for rate cuts now. Hardly any consideration is being given to the plight of the U.S. dollar and accompanying strength in gold. It is all about liquidity right now and Wall Street along with politicians are going to say anything to keep it going. The Fed can't even entertain turning it off. How low can they go? 100 basis points? 200 basis points? I'm not sure it will make a big difference to home owners now that the housing bubble has burst. With lending standards tightened folks are still not going to be able to get loans without strong credit, income, and a big down payment. There could be a little refi action but nothing like we saw earlier in the bubble. Financial institutions will do well and the cheaper money will help offset the poor decisions they made during the housing bubble. There will be a rush to start yet another bubble and I strongly suspect that it won't last nearly as long as the previous bubble. This is quite a mess that has developed and while Wall Street will celebrate a rate cut of 50 basis points I have to wonder what they see looking further down the road. .......................................................... fiendbear.com