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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RonMerks who wrote (6443)	9/18/2007 9:19:04 AM
From: ecrire	Respond to of 50008

Re Fed meeting: just a guess of course, but I think the Fed cuts 1/4% but the accompanying statement will have a more accomodative bias and thus offset what would otherwise be a disappointment to the market.

To: RonMerks who wrote (6443)	9/18/2007 9:56:40 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50008

Ron, The credit markets are still frozen and the extent of the damage to the economy will depend on how long they stay frozen. At this point we (the market) don't know, but as time goes on the extent of the damage is increasing. A fed rate cut will not free up the markets. The issue today is not the cost of funds, it’s the availability of funds. In addition, there were some good points made that this is not a typical credit crunch because of the fact that there are real losses in the system. The following article should be read and studied by everyone, it goes into detail on why this is not a simple credit crunch. paulvaneeden.com. The last point is the market has not factored in the extent of the losses because this is still unknown. My guess is the market may have factored in $200 billion and the real number may end up being in excess of $1 trillion. Just like with the S&L crisis that estimated loss continued to increase over a period of four + years before it became clear. This is a long term process. Jim

To: RonMerks who wrote (6443)	9/18/2007 10:46:12 AM
From: SwingTrader2006	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50008

"It's the unknown and the fear of the unknown that will tank the market." Your aforementioned statement is PRECISELY what is holding this market UP. Stocks do not top out with such bearish sentiment. Stocks top out when everyone is giddy and making easy money (ala the HOUSING MARKET recently). I think the FED cut .25% and the markets will break out to new highs within a couple of weeks. Locked and loaded :-)