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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Trading Cabana -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Shtirlitz who wrote (2810)9/18/2007 4:59:44 PM
From: Bill Wexler  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6370
 
<<<btw, stocks are the best hedge against inflation.>>>

Well, in that case...let's take a look at what gold did during a period in U.S. history when inflation was in high gear:

1968-1973

chartsrus.com

Gosharoo...it just CAN"T go any higher...can it? I mean - after all - as you put it, "Gold is a non producing asset. No dividends, no cash flow, limited industrial demand, limited speculative value..."

1974-1979

chartsrus.com

In the period 1968 - 1979 stocks were essentially flat, however when inflation was taken into account, the true underlying value of a basket of U.S. equities dropped precipitously.

And if you would have hung on for just one more year, you would have benefited from the final buying panic which sent gold into bubble mode:

chartsrus.com

Of course, that's about the exact time inflation was getting under control, stock PEs had drifted lower and the greatest buying opportunity in the U.S. stock market began...

chartsrus.com

See my point?

Oh..I know, stocks only go up. If you don't buy stocks now you will be priced out forever. Right?

Friendly advice - use this rally as a gift to get out of U.S. stocks. If you don't like gold, then at least do yourself a favor and get into Euros.