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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (86648)	9/20/2007 1:22:33 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 110194

I never put any mining stocks in the drawer. Was burned too many times. In a true gold bull, juniors will follow the big names up, with a lag. New all time high in the XAU today. Volatility is a traders dream. The Hunt Bros had silver up to $40/oz before they were busted. So we have a ways to go on silver.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (86648)	9/20/2007 4:45:18 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 110194

GLD at an all-time high:

To: John Vosilla who wrote (86648)	9/20/2007 7:55:34 PM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

((Time to just hold some junior mines the next few years and forget trading them?)) Hi John. Your post got me thinking that one might want to be careful when considering where these junior miners operate. Would you want to own a junior miner in Peru? Honduras? If not, then Mexico? How about Argentina? Canada? Not an easy question to answer I don't think. I mean, Canada (my home and native land) looks pretty safe. But with the rising Canadian dollar, what about operating costs? I currently own shares in both Candente (DNT) and Zincore (ZNC), but after the way that capitalism has raped the common folk of Peru (Fujimore is a perfect example), I'd completely understand if indigenous people wanted a greater stake in the benefits of their natural resources (witness the Bolivian situation with natural gas). Honduras? What's happened in Honduras over the past 30 years makes me sick - the war crimes against the indigenous people. I'd rather not back companies operating there. But, I must admit to owning stock in CKG. Mexico? IMO there is serious potential public unrest bubbling beneath the surface in Mexico. The recent elections were a farce, and like the recent U.S. elections (only more so), were stolen. I'm comfortable being invested in Mexico for now, but three years from now? Hard to say. Argentina. I'm more comfortable being invested in Argentina than I am in the other Latin American countries listed, and own shares in Andina, but again, 3 years from now who's to say. I guess a big part of my concern is that if we do encounter a break like the period between 1929-1932, and effectively the capitalist monetary system "breaks", it's really hard to say how things will turn out. History of such breaks are not very encouraging. If the currently liberal economic monetary regime fundamentally breaks, other means of organizing socio-economic relations will inevitably be explored. If moderate socialism is the result, that would be probably the best scenario. In the 1930's, when the global capitalist system broke, 3 common scenarios were socialism (FDR), communism (for example, Russia), and fascism (Germany, Italy, etc.) - all ways of organizing capital and allocating scarce resource that were not primarily driven by liberal free-market principles (inevitable, as the pricing mechanism and confidence in the system had fundamentally ruptured). We'd do particularly well to avoid the last scenario, and I don't like the sounds of the second scenario very much either. What options are left? From a pure investment standpoint, I'd want to stockpile some physical bullion to offset my bet on gold juniors. While lacking the leverage, you can probably avoid some geopolitical risk (although you still have the risk of confiscation), and there's not the issue of operating costs of the mine. What be your thoughts on the matter? Glenn