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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: samule who wrote (1049)	9/20/2007 2:46:43 PM
From: Elmer Phud	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2121

samule Is it clear to you that for some bizarre reason people here think you are Bob? If you allow that notion to go unchallenged then you will be seen as confirming it and it will be claimed as proof until the next millennium.

To: samule who wrote (1049)	9/20/2007 3:12:54 PM
From: joefromspringfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2121

Samule your comments are those of someone foisting a product on rather clueless investors (your timing) rather than presenting your views on the stock market. "Who would listen to anybody who predicted a 17-year secular bear market and told everybody to just sit it out? LOL!" Thanks for confirming that you make your claims based on what would sell a newsletter. By the way. Who would listen to anybody who predicted a two to four month rally, told you to put a third of your stock market money into it and holds the position hidden away down about half now SEVEN YEARS LATER! Some of the marketing ploys fail miserably huh?

To: samule who wrote (1049)	9/20/2007 4:08:28 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2121

"I prefer to follow Bob's advice and side step that bear market with most of my investments." Having followed his advice throughout the 1990's, I can speak with authority that his strategy of side stepping bears, dollar-cost-averaging, and adding lump sum investments with available cash designated for investment on or near correction lows is a good one. Thanks to my success in applying Bob's advice, I was able to retire after Chevron bought Texaco in late 2001, instead of look for another job like many of my former associates had to. Some of my former work associates who had the "buy-and-hold forever" strategy were not so lucky as I was to know about his newsletter. Their once significantly sized investment portfolios were decimated by the bear. P

To: samule who wrote (1049)	9/20/2007 5:25:21 PM
From: joefromspringfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2121

Samule said: "Who would listen to anybody who predicted a 17-year secular bear market and told everybody to just sit it out? LOL! LOL! How very true, Samule. That may be why Brinker didn't go to 100% cash (like he always said he would) when they "carried out the piano player" between 2000 and October 2002. And it may help explain why Brinker "sold" a secular bear market megatrend during all that time--or at least until the market took out the old highs and looked like it was not about to stop rising any time soon. Are you aware that Bob Brinker claimed to call the beginning of a secular bear market—right down to the exact day and market level? And then Brinker declared the very month that a secular bear megatrend ended. With the Dow at 8506.62 and S&P at 884.66, Bob Brinker begins the August 2002 Marketimer with this proclamation: “In our view, the U.S. stock market entered a secular bear market in the first quarter of year 2000. The benchmark starting points for this secular bear are: Standard and Poor’s 500 Index: 1527.46 = March 24, 2000 Dow Jones Industrial Average 11722.98 = January 14, 2000 In the September 2002, Marketimer, Bob Brinker described exactly how a secular bear megatrend should play out. Brinker said: “.........we believe the ongoing secular megatrend we are now experiencing will see a succession of cyclical bull and bear markets lasting approximately one-to-three years each." It was in May 2006, just one month before he now claims the secular bear market ended, Brinker told us that we were in “year seven of a secular bear megatrend” and he estimated it would have a duration of “eight to twenty years.” Samule.....here is what Bob Brinker told a Moneytalk caller about the secular bear market in February 2007. Excerpt of Brinker's Moneytalk reply to Peter: “But what we do know is within secular trends there are no cases where a secular trend has gone beyond the previous peak by more than, by more than 10%. It's never happened, so I think it's fair to say that until that happens, the secular trend is intact." Now the secular trend that began in year 2000 when the S&P was up in the 1500s, awww, that remains intact. The S&P 500 Index - and this is measured by the Index itself - has not gone above the prior high of 1527 close. In fact, in remains in the mid-1400s at this point. In order for it to move beyond an existing secular trend, such as the one we've had the past seven years, you would have to exceed it, I would think, by at least 10%. There are many cases, Peter, where we have exceeded it in the single digits. There are many cases, for example, go back to 1966-1982-that was a secular bear trend. And there were many cases during that trend, where the Index exceeded the prior cyclical bull market high during that secular trend by let's say, 4%, 5%, 6%, but there were no cases where it was exceeded by 10% or more. So for now, the secular trend remains intact because the S&P has been unable to exceed the prior high of 1527 by anything close to 10%.......” Then in June 2007 issue of Marketimer, Bob Brinker (seemingly in passing) announced that the secular bear market had ended A YEAR EARLIER when he said: "In our view, the……….secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006…….." Samule.... Bob Brinker made no asset allocation changes as a result of his secular bear megatrend prognostications. However, is there any doubt that Brinker snagged a lot of subscription renewals as a direct result of that impending return of that big mega-bear? And Samule… are you aware that there are people who missed out on a lot of stock market gains since March 2003 because they were overly cautious or waiting for MOABO or the return of the bear? Thank you for your comments Samule...I love nothing better than setting Bob Brinker's record straight, but I always want to be perfectly accurate when I present my facts. Of course, when I interject my opinions, that is just what it is--opinion. . For instance, I think that the reason Bob Brinker "ended" his so-called secular bear market a year ago and has been so quiet about it (never mentioned it once on Moneytalk), is because he is so very BULLISH on the market right now--and obviously, the old 2000 highs had already been taken out on both the S&P and on the Dow. . So the stock market appeared to have Brinker between a "rock and a hard place," and I believe that Brinker saw that he had been wrong all along about the secular bear, and rather than just say so (which is not in his nature), he simply declared it over. However, I do wonder why Brinker hasn't informed his Moneytalk listeners about all this. I'm sure Brinker would never want to mislead his listeners.