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To: Perspective who wrote (86666)	9/20/2007 4:06:21 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I thought we would have learned our lesson in the 70s that it was insidious, but perhaps the fear of deflation is just too great. the above statement is it in a nutshell. deflation will destroy the banking system. there's way too much debt. they think inflate or die. Unfortunately, we're headed into deep shit one way or another. regrettably, the end result of trying to inflate our way out of this mess is worse in the long run. again, either way, history has shown the gold does well in either scenario. deflation is better for miners though.

To: Perspective who wrote (86666)	9/20/2007 4:08:44 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

you really don't understand what the are doing? you think there is a plan other than get richer quicker and help my buddies to transfer even more wealth into their pockets? I cant figure out why everyone so naievely believes they are actually trying to do something other than out of total self-oinkerist...

To: Perspective who wrote (86666)	9/20/2007 4:19:46 PM
From: westpacific	Respond to of 110194

Bobcor, we need one more quarter of data...... The cycle dome is just peaking. Still in the deflation camp, not at all on board with this 70s inflation run, chasing it here makes no sense. It is too early to make a call. I would keep that short hedge on however. At least a portion of assets. And as long as oil holds up, one must be in energy in some way. For now the MLPs are not so bad due to dividend payout. Currency - does not hurt to have exposure here as well, I have some problems with the YEN due to their debt to GDP situation. Prefer Swiss or even Euro. Not an easy bet in here, I feel let the cash take a small hit and give it a bit of time. However it should not be all of your holdings, it must be hedged to a percentage via the above near term. Read my other posts from today, great article on what this is really all about. And if I am right, gold will not be as safe as many assume. Also the markets are in big, big trouble - there is room for one more high yet, that is doable. Patience and no rush is the better bet near term. I see so many chasing the next hot thing, that never works. You get one right and burned on the next. Great post, most everyone I feel is thinking like you, it is hard to make sense of all this. In the 70s we did not have the debt or derivative nor the hedge funds, it is so different this time around. We had only just come off the gold standard. Tricky is the word. The FED is not just scared about deflation, it is so much deeper than that this time! West

To: Perspective who wrote (86666)	9/20/2007 4:28:07 PM
From: benwood	Respond to of 110194

With Bush, it's more a matter of lock-step thinking. Those that deviated were expelled, and pretty soon everybody felt really good about their ideas, because everybody else validated them. Alternative viewpoints simply vanished. Anybody who said, "but" ended up on his butt. That, and the purpose of the invasion was to be there, hence 'exist' strategy rather than 'exit' strategy. With Greenie, oops, I mean Benny, I think there will be a conserable lag before he's discredited. After all, those who will benefit also control the TV press. And TV and Internut blaring the "bold move" has so many otherwise intelligent and informed people bamboozled. Just today I was talking to a friend who's trying to sell her house, and she said, "At least they lowered interest rates this week..." By the time the press "catches on" the toxic waste will be overseas and in our pension funds.

To: Perspective who wrote (86666)	9/20/2007 5:53:25 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 110194

>>>how many people who bothered to think of consequences stood up and said "sure, Saddam isn't a nice guy, but if you take him out, you'll create a chaotic power vacuum that we'll end up owning. He's not a present threat to us any more than any of the other crazies out there. We shouldn't step into this quagmire with American money and lives."<<< Actually that was the policy of the first Bush administration, and that is very close to what Cheney is shown as saying on that piece that's on U-Tube somewhere. People think Cheney is the evil influence; actually he is the consummate apologist for presidential wishes. But that's politics, not economics. Any more news on subprime implosions?

To: Perspective who wrote (86666)	9/20/2007 7:41:17 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I think the Fed is guilty of the same thinking, and further assuming linearity of markets. All you need to know about Bernanke is that he was appointed by Bush. Has anyone appointed by him done superbly at the job? Game, set, match

To: Perspective who wrote (86666)	9/20/2007 11:53:37 PM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

((I wonder if what we're seeing is a general bureaucratic inability to think like a chess player. )) Actually, I think there's a certain blindness and hubris that comes when you can "feel" how close you are to absolute power. You can almost taste it. You feel the rush. [Speaking here of the US geopolitical context, not the Fed. More specifically, your CFR types, not your average bureaucrat.] And when a significant part of the legacy of your power is built on lies and deceit. I think at some point you just assume you can get away with committing great crimes. Bureaucratic incompetence to my mind is precisely what this isn't. It goes WAY deeper than that. ((Our "leaders" couldn't think beyond the next step, and made their decision based upon the outcome tomorrow, ignoring the longer term.)) Because, IMO, they felt, as Russ put it on his blog, that they could make their power play, succeed magnificently, and "avoid sitting down at the banquet of unintended consequences". ((I think the Fed is guilty of the same thinking, and further assuming linearity of markets.)) I don't buy that for a second. Not the guys (and gals) at the epicenter of Fed power. They're too smart for that. But at some point, some point long ago BTW, the game just got to out of control. And when it breaks, for a long time it must have been clear that it is going to be a massively discontinuous event. So there was both personal and institutional incentive to avoid the day of reckoning for as long as possible. Because the alternative was simply too painful to consider. ((I would love to see heli-Ben absolutely discredited courtesy of the law of unintended consequences.)) Did you get a chance to view the Ron Paul video. ;) Bernanke appeared an absolutely pathetic soul IMO. And I have a feeling that by the time this is over, the Fed will be a massively discredited institution. Although, like the dark lord Sauron in Tolkein's Lord of the Rings, I'm sure the "deep" political forces behind the Fed will arise in some other insidious manner. (OK, maybe that's a little over-dramatic. :) ). ((I really don't understand what they're doing, except that they are clearly trying to produce more inflation.)) Survive. And please their constituency - which is first and foremost the monied interests on Wall St. It's sure as heck not the average American citizen. M2CW anyway. g