Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (28160)	9/20/2007 6:14:52 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78523

You are correct. I'm "all in". When I see an economic calamity unfolding, I don't want to play stockpicker. I simply pack up my bags and leave. (Well..I am shorting the market - but you get my drift). This is an economic calamity without precedent. Whenever I debate my friends about this, it always boils down to this one riddle that I pose: "Explain how you deflate roughly $15 trillion out of this housing bubble + service $10 trillion in debt and keep earnings momentum going in an economy with a GDP that is 3/4 dependent on consumer spending." Crickets. The stock market has had a great run since 1980. In my opinion, it's over. After Bernake pretty much confirmed my worst fears by cutting rates, I now look out over the sea of U.S. equities and see nothing but shorting opportunities...starting with retailers.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (28160)	9/20/2007 6:21:10 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Respond to of 78523

Oh...one more point. To address your arguments that these retailers have little debt and lots of cash, I would counter that their cash ain't gonna be worth much going forward, and their balance sheets will soon reflect the weakening income/cash flow statements. Stock buybacks are wonderful - if they make sense. JC Penney (which I am short) has done large ones, but the stock is well off its high. You know as well as I do that at the bottom of these cycles, companies can trade below cash. We have a way to go.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (28160)	9/20/2007 10:51:03 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78523

Bill Wexler - you seem to have a bias to shorting stocks. Each it's own. asensioexposed.com Regarding BBY the fact is that in a climate that is considered difficult BBY is beating the numbers and burying the competition (CC). I do not know more bullish circumstance. I have been on the short side of BBY and it was no fun. Todays valuation is undemanding considering the cash on hand and the growth avenues that BBY has available.