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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 8bits who wrote (28190)	9/22/2007 1:09:33 PM
From: deeno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78525

'I can't speak for Bill" LOL, like he would let you... " I view being short retailers and long commodities as being roughly equivalent to being short the US and long the developing world." somewhat simplistic but OK. "I believe it is now possible for the US to have a mild recession without the rest of the world joining it" guess that depends on your definition of "mild". In most things I read here on SI, people consider US the consumption engine of the world. thats why the trade inbalance, weak dollar, etc. Our market seems to panick if GDP only rasies 1% Imagine how we would react if it fell 5%. Seems mild, is it? If we are the engine and one piston misfires things will run, just not smoothly. Now if you are not of the opinion that we are a major force of consumption well then you and I would be disagrreeing on the basic thought, unable for either of us to move forward. "If we have a severe global recession I don't see why food producers (and companies that supply that market..) would not also be affected." this is a valid point, based on my writing, consider... "There is a tremendous change occurring globally in terms of shift of economic and political power." As standard of living increases people will buy food and better food. Hopefully savings and some credit would have been established. Just becasue your laid off or downsized or get less hours, the last cutback is likely food. IF the duration of the reseccesion is long and extended I think your right, food ultimatly would suffer. In a mild or short duration, I think food would hold up well. remember the orginal statement bill made was hiding places. With the historically high oil inventories (especially the US) Oil will plummet as should most raw materials. Im thinking GOld would suffer as well, but I fully admit to not being a gold bug. Taking all you money out of the market and shorting is a call. throwing a bunch of money into gold? more of a hedge, not worth it in my view. Going INTL? hisorically swings more then the US, not the right move IMHO. Maybe INTL drug cos. may even benifit if hillery gets in the white house.