Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (28199)	9/24/2007 12:48:23 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	Respond to of 78753

We are on opposite sides of the trade on this, that's what makes a market. And, I don't see all that much in terms of risk/reward. On a chart basis, my rudimentary TA would say that there is limited downside, with much more upside. That is, unless the US economy implodes, and the consumer runs away, which is, I guess, what you are betting.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (28199)	9/24/2007 7:18:15 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

I have no experience with shorts but when I look at amzn and gm my mouth starts to salivate. do you have any opinion on those? I see books as a commodity item and maybe im stupid but for the life of me i cant perceive why a distributor of commodities should sell at such a high multiple to book and cashflow. GM just looks like a business that to me cant be fixed without universal health care coverage.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (28199)	9/24/2007 7:49:49 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78753

I'll continue to bet on retail and the consumer by starting a position today in COF. If retail is going to crater, if the country is in serious trouble with mortgage loans, job growth, cash-strapped consumers, then this stock too should continue to fall. I vote for muddle-through. Company has a good history of good profit margins, roe, increasing book value. At current price, analysts (per Yahoo) give consensus p/e of 8+. That makes the current stock price too cheap based on my model (p/stated bv, p/e, etc., and which assumes no dastardly recession). Kicker is that company will begin to pay 25% of earnings as dividend (approx $2/sh/yr, if estimates are correct). finance.yahoo.com Jmo and where I'm placing some money.