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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (1164)	9/24/2007 3:14:32 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2121

Good points but how many "counter trend rallies in a secular bear market" did any of his models correctly call in the prior 15 years? I think subscribers had a sample size of 1... the attempt with QQQQ that he talked about for well over a year when you add in all the time before the bulletin he said to wait for advice on how to "play counter trend rallies" as "the way to make money in a bear market is to play the counter trend rallies." I believe from the observation of posts on boards I moderate plus thousands of emails about Brinker where some write about their QQQ experience, that his subscribers acted to become more conservative at the very worst time. You really can't blame Brinker for this but his subscribers became more aggressive after his long period of success between 1991 and the call to lower allocation in 2000. So when the advice came along for the QQQ counter trend rally, many were more aggressive than they should have been. This is a huge reason I don't like market timing unless you are clear it is only for your "explore portfolio" or your "mad money" not the core portfolios you buy and hold except for rebalancing. Otherwise I pretty much line up with how you have evaluated his record where you go with the model portfolios and subtract out the QQQQ advice. He restarted his portfolios in 1988 after under performing in 1986 and 1987 so Hulbert accounts for that but I have not adjusted Brinker's P1 results for it.