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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker, Moneytalk and Marketimer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (1180)	9/24/2007 4:48:57 PM
From: sweetsue	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2121

Math Junkie said: "Also, I was talking about the record of his current model, but if you want to go back before that, then we should include ALL the data, going back to 1981, not just to 1987." Actually, if you check my original post that started this whole discussion, you will see that I deliberately used 1987 as a starting point. I did that for the simple reason that I have no personal knowledge or documentation about Brinker before that date. I have to take your (and Pete's) word for what Brinker did before 1987. About Brinker's "1380 or lower" buying signal in March, you said: "The one in March wasn't wrong, because he was right to rate the market "attractive for purchase" at that level. The fact that the buy didn't execute is irrelevant, since he did NOT predict that the market would go there." Oops, Math...sorry but that is incorrect. Brinker sent that bulletin AFTER the market was above 1380 and it did not return to (close to) that level until AFTER Brinker gave a NEW buy signal in the "mid-1400s" range. Brinker evidently thinks that the distance between 1380 and 1450 on the S&P is important or he wouldn't have bothered to issue a new buy signal--would he? About the "mid-1400's" buy signal you said: "We don't know yet whether the one in July will turn out to be right or wrong. That depends on whether the bull market continues. And the fact that the market went below his buy point is irrelevant, because it only went a few percentage points below, and it recovered quickly and strongly." So Math, you are saying that the fact that the market immediately started to drop after he gave the last signal and actually dropped back very close to the PREVIOUS signal (1380) does not make the last signal irrelevant? I heartily disagree. Actually they are BOTH irrelevant, because they were both complete misses. Here is what happened: 1) In March 2007, Bob Brinker gave a buy signal at "1380 or lower" and the stock market stayed above that level, so the advice to dollar-cost-average would have trumped that buy signal. . 2) August 3, 2007, Bob Brinker gave another buy signal in the "mid-1400" range and the stock market almost immediately began to drop below that, reaching 1380 intraday, closing at a low of 1406 on August 15, 2007. It was a sizable miss if you bought at 1450 or above; and "1380 or lower" was never hit (on a closing basis). .