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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: energyplay who wrote (23219)9/27/2007 5:29:33 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 217900
 
taiwan had decided, inexplicably, to commit geopolitical, political, fiscal, as well as monetary suicide

5% of its most productive compatriots live in and around Shanghai

enough of its retired military officers work for the people's liberation army

many of its citizens hold macau papers

reasons unknown ;0)

and now, plans are already firm, only pr work being eased into mindset of all concerned

usa, already warned by prc about 24-36 months ago, will step aside, else russia wins, and now usa is in fact singing from the prc hymn book

japan cannot be on, because it cannot afford to

australia will stand down, because it has no stomach and no interest

perhaps new zealand wants to step up to the plate swing above its category - we shall see

the ways to inevitable solution range the full spectrum

buy, hard buy all shanghai & hong kong shares on any and all bad news

believe first line of approach will be palace coup, clean, quick, fuss free, less the commotion, and limited to within the four walls of the palace

the fuss-free regime change can thus be attributed fully to internal issues and characters, and so remain fuss-free

some believe taiwan will be about a physical fight

whereas they ought to believe that all is about positioning, and nothing in Sun Tze's book says war is a good idea - the best war is one that is fought and won without firing a single shot, per Sun Tze - excellent book


scmp.com

New Taiwan strategy expected to include worst-case scenario


Minnie Chan
Sep 27, 2007

|




The central leadership will draw up a new Taiwan strategy at the Communist Party's 17th National Congress next month, with experts saying they expect Beijing will prepare for a worst-case scenario.
Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Li Weiyi said yesterday that Taiwan would be among the key issues discussed at the party congress, and a new strategy would be formed. He did not elaborate.



"In line with cross-strait development in recent years, the 17th party congress will lay down the guiding principle, the strategic goal and key steps [to solving the Taiwan problem] for the future," Mr Li said. "It aims at directing and improving cross-strait ties, and it will be very significant to the progress of peaceful unification."

Earlier this month, President Hu Jintao warned that Beijing would stop at nothing to prevent Taiwan moving towards independence. He was responding to Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's bid to seek a UN seat for the island, a move widely seen as a step towards Taiwan becoming a fully independent nation.

Beijing-based Renmin University professor Shi Yinhong said he believed the leadership would take the opportunity to form a consensus on how to handle the challenges, including the push by Mr Chen and his Democratic Progressive Party to gain full UN membership for the island and their plan to hold a referendum on the issue.

While Professor Shi said he expected the central government would follow the overall principle of "seeking peaceful reunification with Taiwan", he warned that Beijing would also prepare for the worst.

"If those acts cause any immediate danger to cross-strait relations, I think Beijing would take very strong steps to oppose them. It would do everything to hold on to Taiwan, and it is now ready to resort to any measures, including using both its soft and hard power."

He said hard power meant mainland leaders would take military action against Taiwan if the situation in the Taiwan Strait got out of control.

He also said that if the central leadership had to resort to the military option, it would not just "launch a few missiles without warheads" over Taiwan - as former president Jiang Zemin did in 1996.

"We must remember that the mainland now is totally different from Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin's eras. With more than two decades' economic development, our military power has reached a certain level."

Liu Guoshen , the head of Xiamen University's Taiwan Research Institute, said the current situation was not as dangerous as some people in Beijing feared.

"Actually, the chance of Taiwan becoming an independent nation is very slim because of the lack of support on the island. There are political disagreements between Beijing and Taiwan, and it takes time to solve them. We still need to promote more non-government exchanges."





To: energyplay who wrote (23219)9/27/2007 8:17:44 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217900
 
latest on the compatriots of taiwan bloomberg.com

absolute peace and prosperity beckons, on the one hand, and utter peace and perhaps prosperity winks, otoh :0)

Taiwan's Kinmen Veers Toward China 29 Years After Cease-Fire

By Yu-huay Sun

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Artillery shells from China have defined Wu Tseng-dong's life. He ducked them for 20 years and earned a living making knives from their casings. Now he looks forward to meeting the enemy who launched them.

``Times have changed,' says Wu, 50, who lives on Kinmen, the island once known as Quemoy that was Taiwan's military front line against China for almost six decades. ``China was communist before but now they're capitalist.'

Starved of the Taiwanese soldiers and visiting relatives who once kept Kinmen's economy humming, the islanders are turning to their closest neighbor for future prosperity. Two-thirds of the 70,000 residents support buying electricity from China -- just 10 kilometers (6 miles) away -- and forming a special economic zone to forge closer ties, a survey by the county government shows.

Such views are anathema for Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party government, which faces a presidential election in March.

``We should return to the motherland so we can have more business,' says Hsu Chi-sung, 48, a former artilleryman and Kinmen native, who now shows Chinese and Taiwanese tour groups -- separately -- around the island.

``Don't forget, vote for Ma,' he tells a Taiwanese tourist, referring to Ma Ying-jeou, the opposition Kuomintang candidate, after visiting an underground pier housing naval boats.

The Kuomintang fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong's communists. China's shelling of Kinmen led to threats of nuclear retaliation by the U.S. in the 1950s.

China still claims Taiwan as part of its territory. While the Kuomintang favors a negotiated peace, the Democratic Progressive Party pursues a separate identity for Taiwan and emphasizes China's military threat.

Cease-Fire

Kinmen residents aren't buying the warnings. After bombarding the island every second day for 20 years, China declared a cease-fire in 1978. The military gave way to civilian rule on Kinmen 15 years ago.

These days Wu, who forges each shell casing into as many as 80 knives, relies on stocks hoarded over the years.

Power shortages are now a bigger threat than artillery. Kinmen risks running short of electricity in two years as the local liquor-maker expands, says Tu King-chun, director for state-run Taiwan Power Co. on the island. A 10-kilometer cable to China would ease supply concerns, Tu says.

``Technically there's no problem,' he says, adding that political differences must be solved first.

`Recover the Motherland'

Visitors don't lack reminders Taiwan and China remain at war. Watchtowers stand in some intersections and anti-paratrooper columns dot farmland. Signs saying: ``Don't forget we have an obligation to recover the motherland' adorn some buildings.

Since 2001, China and Taiwan have permitted direct shipping for trade and tourism between Kinmen and China's Fujian province. Tourists may exchange Chinese yuan on the island.

Still, Taiwan restricts the number of Chinese visitors to 600 a day and only Fujianese may apply.

China enforces its own curbs. Duan Xianqing, a former soldier from Jinjiang, says approval of his visa took two months.

``The investigations went back to eight generations of my ancestors,' Duan says on his first trip outside mainland China. ``The people on this tour all have clean records politically and are excellent professionally.'

As a soldier, Duan spent time watching Kinmen through binoculars.

``Now I'm seeing it in person,' he says. ``I toured big streets and small alleys and was quite impressed.'

Hurt Feelings

On Duan's itinerary: a radio station that broadcast propaganda and the wreckage of a communist command center during the 1949 battle that halted their advance to Taiwan island. Museums that celebrate Kuomintang victories were omitted.

``We don't take mainland tourists there because it hurts their feelings,' says tour guide Hsu, who bought a house in Xiamen, the nearest Chinese city, with his profits.

At the peak of hostilities, Taiwan stationed 120,000 soldiers on the 150 square-kilometer island, says Lee Juh-feng, the county commissioner. That number has dropped to about 6,000, according to Taiwan's Defense Ministry.

Five years ago, relatives visiting soldiers were the main source of income for Chang I-wen, who owns a 30-room hotel in downtown Kinmen. Now she is betting on Chinese tourists, who account for a third of customers.

``If all mainland Chinese are allowed to come, then we'll be full,' says Chang, 56. ``We won't need tourists from Taiwan.'

Service industries accounted for 54 percent of Kinmen's economy in 2005, compared with 64 percent in 1996, county figures show.

`Gifts From Mao'

The Democratic Progressive Party needs every vote it can get. Its presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh, trails the Kuomintang's Ma by 24 percentage points, according to a Sept. 22 survey of 723 adults by the United Daily News newspaper.

Chinese electricity and an economic zone aren't the only items on islanders' wish list. More than 80 percent want a bridge to Xiamen, the county survey of 1,158 residents found in April. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.

Third-generation knife-maker Wu is honing his tourist patter. Taiwanese soldiers wanting souvenirs used to bring him old Chinese ordnance, he says. Now he tells mainlanders: ``Bomb shells were gifts from Mao Zedong.'

To contact the reporter on the story: Yu-huay Sun in Taipei ysun7@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: September 26, 2007 17:49 EDT



To: energyplay who wrote (23219)9/27/2007 8:30:20 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217900
 
absolutely the latest on taiwan ... the coup starts, per stratfor, as another weasel bites the dust

1133 GMT -- TAIWAN -- The chairman of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party, Yu Shyi-kun, resigned Sept. 27, citing differences within the party over his proposal to change the island's official name to "Taiwan" from "the Republic of China." Yu, who is known for his staunch pro-independence standpoint, was charged several days ago with corruption and forgery.



To: energyplay who wrote (23219)9/28/2007 1:45:39 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 217900
 
IMF looks to salvage its global relevance. With a shrunken loan portfolio, the institution that lectures others about finances has lost operating income, is running a deficit and is facing staff cuts and considering the sale of gold to meet expenses

iht.com

I waited some two decades to read this news...