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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (90734)	9/27/2007 1:23:59 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I really like the analysis showing price-to-book given a 20% impairment. Everybody should have a look at that. As I'd kinda intuited, TOL KBH CTX LEN and MDC are all still over 1.4 PB in that scenario, but the RYL DHI and PHM numbers surprised me a little. Most of their share prices have fallen a ton; my target for all of these has been a 75% haircut, and we're pretty darned close: finance.yahoo.com Might re-enter if there was a significant short-covering bounce, but otherwise I'm moving on to the next theme: short those that have dollar-denominated revenues and non-dollar expenses, with long hedges in exporters (dollar-based expenses and non-dollar revenues). And many of those happen to also be in the consumer realm. How fortunate. BC