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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E. Charters who wrote (87037)	9/28/2007 3:23:43 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

So the sequence of price moonshots started with oil, then progressed to food, then gold followed, and finally the discount rate soared? Some of this can be dug out of historical databases, but it would be nice to have a personal memory of it all as you have. Also, I always question the accuracy of the statistics given how tortured they are these days. Some are comparing 2007 to 1974, but I've concluded that they are not even close to equivalent. We may be in a position like 1972 or 1973, but by the time gold finally took off, the commodity indices had already had their moonshot. BC

To: E. Charters who wrote (87037)	9/28/2007 3:31:27 PM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 110194

Pretty picture of CRB, Fed Funds, and CPI, all as % change from prior year: (hope this chart comes through - let me know if you can't see it and I'll try something else) s189.photobucket.com Shows pretty clearly the moonshot in CRB preceded the moonshots in the Fed Funds by about six months, and the (reported) CPI by nearly a year. The stock market also waited until the Fed Funds soared to really decline in earnest. Price action in gold mirrored the CRB: chartsrus.com BC